Kris kristofferson bobby mcgee

This show was a blast. The crowd wasn't super large but made up for it in energy and enthusiasm. Would definitely recommend an AEW house show if you get an opportunity.
Results:

Match	Stipulation(s)
'Platinum' Max Caster defeated Tony Nese	One Fall Match
Jeff Jarrett and Satnam Singh defeated The Boys	Tag Team Match
Kyle Fletcher defeated a local competitor	One Fall Match
Kris Statlander (c) defeated Lady Frost	TBS Title Match
Hook and the Hardy Boyz defeated Big Bill, Preston Vance, and Ethan Page	Trios Match
Powerhouse Hobbs defeated Shawn Spears	One Fall Match
Juice Robinson defeated Pat Buck	One Fall Match
Toni Storm (c) defeated Dr. Britt Baker DMD, Skye Blue, and Anna Jay A.S.	Four-Way Match for the AEW Women's World Title
AEW International Champion Orange Cassidy and Darby Allin defeated 'Daddy Magic' Matt Menard and Daniel Garcia of the J.A.S.	Tag Team Match

Other Notable Events
Jarrett and Singh got the first big pop of the night
The local wrestler that went up against Kyle Fletcher got repeated "Local Guy!" chants
Kris Statlander and Lady Frost repeatedly countered each other's wristlocks with cartwheels, leading to chants of "Cartwheel City!" and many other wrestlers working cartwheels into their matches for the hell of it
However large Big Bill appears on TV, he is way larger IRL
Upon winning their match, Matt Hardy leveraged his contractual power over Ethan Page to force him to do the Jeff dance, and then take pictures with fans
Shawn Spears ran his mouth throughout his match in a way very reminiscent of 'Iron' Mike Sharpe
Pat Buck came out wearing a Bobby Eaton shirt here in Eaton's hometown, Juice acted like he was gacked on coke throughout the match, but in an entertaining way
Tony Khan came out and addressed the crowd, thanking us for coming and continued support of AEW
The 4-Way Match was a blast, may have been the match of the night
The JAS hit O.C. in the ribs with Darby Allin's skateboard before the bell; Darby challenged them to a handicap match and mostly got his ass kicked until O.C. did the Spirit of '76 comeback with his ribs taped
After the Main Event, a kid dressed as Orange Cassidy was brought into the ring and got to pose with the winners, holding the International belt. He got a ginormous pop when Orange asked him if he could do a cartwheel and he complied

So with the game being under a month away now and having a bunch of new info out there, I was bored and did a deep-dive into what the full roster of Fight Forever is looking like. As a reminder, the base roster size is going to be 50+ (I'm assuming in the range of 51-59, but it could potentially be slightly more).
EDIT: I've updated this to reflect the new roster members revealed in the DenkOps video showcasing the Owen Hart character model and Road to Elite mode. And I've also added the DLC roster for completion's sake.
​
Cover Athletes: Adam Page, Britt Baker, Bryan Danielson, Chris Jericho, Jade Cargill, Jon Moxley, Kenny Omega, MJF, Orange Cassidy, Sting (10)
Official Website Images: Abadon, Hikaru Shida, Thunder Rosa, Yuka Sakazaki (4)
Official Gameplay / Trailer Footage: Adam Cole, Darby Allin, Eddie Kingston, Kris Statlander, Jungle Boy, Matt Jackson, Nick Jackson, Nyla Rose, Pentagon Jr, Sammy Guevara (10)
DoN Fan-Fest Convention Screenshot/Footage Confirmations: Brodie Lee, Miro, Ricky Starks (3)
IGN Final Preview Confirmations: Andrade el Idolo, Chuck Taylor, CM Punk, Cody Rhodes, Dustin Rhodes, Jeff Hardy, John Silver, Lance Archer, Luchasaurus, Malakai Black, Pac, Rey Fenix (12)
MachoT First Impression Confirmations: Aubrey Edwards, Brian Cage, Paul Wight, Riho, Ruby Soho (5)
Main Menu Screen (via DenkOps) Confirmations: Scorpio Sky, Wardlow (2)
Content Creator Event Video Confirmation: Trent Beretta (1)
Owen Hart + Road to Elite Showcase Video Confirmations: Christian Cage, Owen Hart, Powerhouse Hobbs, Tay Melo (4)
All of these names make up the currently outright confirmed base roster spots and come to a total of 51. And then there are a few names that are potentially in the mix to fill out the rest of the roster:
Potential Memory Mini-Game Photo Confirmations (5)

• Anna Jay (who was shown in a photo with TayJay partner Tay Melo, who is now confirmed for the roster)
• ReDragon: Bobby Fish and Kyle O'Reilly (If they are in the game, they'll probably be two of the five unlockables as KOR wasn't seen in the RTE selection screen in the IGN video)
• Proud n' Powerful: Santana and Ortiz (They would be a bit of a surprise as there was a report last year that they wouldn't be in the base roster)

Potential Achievement List Photo Confirmation (1)

• Christopher Daniels (I'm growing more skeptical of him being in the game with Kazarian seemingly being confirmed to not be in and that his face isn't visible in the photos he's in with Sammy Guevara)

From there, a few more names remain as potential roster additions we haven't heard about yet that fit into the alphabetic parameters set by the IGN video (i.e. anyone who is not between Chuck Taylor and Matt Jackson in the selection screen):
Possible Additional Base Roster Inclusions: Alex Reynolds, Brody King, Buddy Matthews, Penelope Ford, Serena Deeb, Shawn Spears (6)
As well, there are a few roster spots we know are not in the initial roster but are confirmed to be in the first batch of DLC / pre-order for Fight Forever:
Confirmed DLC / Pre-Order Roster Members: The Bunny, Cash Wheeler, Danhausen, Dax Harwood, Hook, Keith Lee, Matt Hardy (both regular and Broken versions/attires) (7)
So as it stands now with a tl;dr

• Base Roster Size = 50+ / Assumedly (but not Confirmed to be) 51 - 59
• Outright Confirmed = 51
• Potentially Confirmed = 6
• Possible Roster Additions = 6

For anyone in town for the summer who's looking for events to enjoy this weekend, here's 25 local events you can enjoy and participate in on Saturday & Sunday.
1. 2023 Pulaski County Spring Flea Market New River Valley Fairgrounds, Dublin Saturday, June 3, 2023 and Sunday, June 4, 2023, 7:00 AM - 5:00 PM Admission: $2.00, Kids 6 and Under: Free The Dublin Lions Club presents the 2023 Pulaski County Spring Flea Market celebrating 48 years. With over 20,000 visitors and 700 vendors spaces, more than a dozen different food vendors offering varied food options and the chance to eat a few of the famous "Lion Dogs", you will not want to miss this event. Check out vendors with crafts, antiques and more at the semi-annual Pulaski County Flea Market. Although over 100 spaces are under roof, it is a largely an outdoor event. The terrain is varied from asphalt, gravel and grass. Parking is free. All proceeds go to the Dublin Lions and their numerous community causes such as eyeglasses for the needy and hunger relief in the community. The event is rain or shine. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708165
2. Kunga Fest 2023: Two-Day Donations Yoga Festival In Balance Yoga Studio, Blacksburg Friday, June 2, 2023, 4:00 - 10:00 PM and Saturday, June 3, 2023, 8:30 AM - 5:00 PM Yoga classes and events are by donation. In Balance Yoga Studio presents their 10th Kunga Fest, a two-day Donations Yoga Festival with 100% of the donations donated to directly support the Homes of Hope Orphanage in India. Homes of Hope is a safe space for orphaned, abandoned, or trafficked young girls in India. In Balance Yoga is offering 15 donation-based classes throughout the two-day event. Hot yoga, ariel yoga, yoga classes with live music and gentle flow, are just some of the options offered. A silent auction will also be offered with bidding open until 6:00 PM on Saturday, June 3rd. Over 20 items are in the auction including a private ariel yoga session, a one-hour reiki session, an acupuncture session and more! Yoga classes and events are by donation though registration is required. Membership is not required to attend however new students will have to create an online profile in order to register. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708207
3. National Trails Day: Appalachian Trail Volunteer Trail Work Pearis Cemetary / Appalachian Trailhead Parking, Pearisburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 9:00 AM - 4:00 PM Admission: Free The Outdoor Club at Virginia Tech is hosting Appalachian Trail Volunteer Trail Work for National Trails Day meeting at the Appalachian Trailhead Parking at Pearis Cemetary. The first Saturday of June each year is designated as National Trails Day, a day to celebrate our National Trails. There are a variety of volunteer opportunities available throughout the Trail. Essential trail maintenance helps protect natural resources and improves the hiking experience. Activities planned for the day include removing tress that have fallen across the Trail and are obstructing its path, cleaning out water bars and other trail tread structures of debris so that they can effectively divert water from the Trail and continue to help reduce erosion, as well as trimming back woody bushes that might be encroaching on the sides of the Trail. This work will be taking place on Hemlock Ridge, the stretch of Trail between the Celenese plant and Clendennin Road. There will be a shuttle planned to allow for a 3-mile hike through, performing work along the way. No previous experience required and all ages are welcome. The club will provide tools, training, and personal protective equipment. While it is free to volunteer, registration is required to ensure enough supplies will be available. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708056
4. American Red Cross Blood Drive with Brunch Meadowbrook Public Library, Shawsville Saturday, June 3, 2023, 9:00 AM - 2:00 PM Admission: Free Meadowbrook Public Library and the Meadowbrook Center hosts an American Red Cross Blood Drive. Help save a life by donating blood. Brunch will be provided for donors and they may select a used book to take home. Books compliments of Friends of the Library-Meadowbrook Chapter. The blood drive is sponsored by Craighill Masonic Lodge and Meadowbrook Library. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708083
5. CIMA Open House Christiansburg Institute Museum and Archives, Christiansburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 10:00 AM - 2:00 PM Admission: Free Christiansburg Institute Museum & Archives staff will lead museum guests on a behind the scenes tour of our archives and explain the digitization process. Explore the history of Christiansburg Institute and African American history in Southwest Virginia. No registration is required. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708171
6. Survival Skills Workshop Series: Part 2: Edible and Medicinal Plants Pulaski County Library, Pulaski Saturday, June 3, 2023, 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM Admission: Free The Pulaski County Library continues their Survival Skills Workshop Series with "Part 2: Edible and Medicinal Plants". Learn about edible and medicinal plants and enjoy some pine needle tea. Join them to learn important survival skills from a Claytor Lake ranger. This is the second part of a four-part course that will help you to brush up our survivalist knowledge and skills. All are welcome but these will be gauged for adults. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707463
7. 2023 Gospel Sing St. Luke and Odd Fellows Hall, Blacksburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 12:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Blacksburg Museum and Cultural Foundation presents the annual Gospel Sing. The afternoon will be filled with singing, dancing, and fellowship as six local groups including Simple Gifts, Indian Run, Glorylanders and soloists perform their favorite current and old-time gospel favorites. Food and beverage will be available for purchase. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708172
8. Historic Smithfield's June Crafters' Stitch Along Historic Smithfield, Blacksburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 12:00 - 3:00 PM Admission: Free Historic Smithfield presents June's Crafters' Stitch Along. You don't have to stitch to participate. Bring whatever craft you would like to work on and feel free to bring your paints, pencils, hooks, yarn, needles or fabric. This event is free to attend though pre-registration is appreciated. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708189
9. Music at the Villa with Craig Vaughn Villa Appalaccia Winery, Floyd Saturday, June 3, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Relax and enjoy some great music along with great wine and food. Craig Vaughn is a musician that combines extraordinary musicianship with heavy-duty fun. His high energy blend of rock, blues, pop and acoustic music equals unforgettable moments for audiences. He seamlessly goes from playing Bob Marley to The Eagles to Johnny Cash to Tom Petty to Ed Sheering to Journey to Newgrass to The Steve Miller Band without missing a lick. Kids and well-behaved dogs welcome. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708180
10. Genealogy Saturdays Alexander Black House & Cultural Center, Blacksburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Ancestry experts will be on hand to assist you as you explore your family tree. Come with questions about research and discovering your roots. Join them on the first Saturday of every month for Genealogy Saturdays. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708173
11. Puzzle Swap Christiansburg Library, Christiansburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 1:00 - 3:00 PM Admission: Free Bring your puzzles to swap for new-to-you puzzles. Please make sure that all pieces are there. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708134
12. June 2023 Cruiser Night Scoops Arcade, Pembroke Saturday, June 3, 2023, 5:00 - 8:00 PM Admission: Free Scoops Arcade continues their Cruiser Nights on Snidow Street in downtown Pembroke, VA. Show off your classic, modified, or new cars, trucks and bikes. Ride in style down the street and/or park and enjoy the atmosphere and oldies music. All vehicles and spectators are welcome. Hotdogs, corndogs, pizza, nachos, drinks and Scoops old fashion hand dipped ice cream and shakes will be available inside Scoops. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708196
13. Bobby and Blake Parker in Concert Rising Silo Farm Brewery, Blacksburg Saturday, June 3, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Rising Silo Farm Brewery presents Bobby and Blake Parker playing cozy folk music, blues and ragtime on 6- and 12-string guitar and more. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707876
14. Chico and Willie in Concert Outerspace, Floyd Saturday, June 3, 2023, 6:00 - 9:00 PM Admission: Free Chico & Willie perform Americana music to make you smile outside at Outerspace. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708185
15. John McEuen & The Circle Band in Concert Floyd Country Store, Floyd Saturday, June 3, 2023, 7:00 - 10:00 PM General Admission: $38.00, Reserved Seating: $45.00 John McEuen has performed for 50 years worldwide with his banjo, fiddle, guitar, and mandolin. Often referred to as ‘the String Wizard’, he humorously weaves stories of his travels and family life (he has raised 7 kids), taking us on a multi-media show through where his musical path has taken him. A founding member of the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band in 1966, John realized his teenage dream: to record with Earl Scruggs and Doc Watson. When he initiated the 1972 classic "Will the Circle Be Unbroken" album with his band the Nitty Gritty Dirt Band, Earl and Doc with Roy Acuff, Mother Maybelle Carter, Jimmy Martin, Merel Travis, Vassar Clements, Norman Blake gathered for an historic week in the studio. The album has been inducted in to the Library of Congress as "one of America’s most important recordings" and the Grammy Hall of Fame. John has continually performed since 1963, doing over 11,000 concerts, 300 television shows, 10,000 interviews and flown more than 4 million miles. McEuen’s rich history of creating, producing and preserving original and traditional folk music earned him the 2013 Charlie Poole Lifetime Achievement Award. He has made over 46 albums (7 solo) that have earned four platinum and five gold records, multiple Grammy Awards and nominations, CMA and ACM awards, an Emmy film score nomination, IBMA record of the year award, and performed on another 25 albums as guest artist. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707453
16. The CC Coates Band in Concert Dogtown Roadhouse, Floyd Saturday, June 3, 2023, 8:00 - 11:00 PM Admission: $8.00 The CC Coates Band performs blues, soul and rock n roll. Sung by the real deal and backed by a hell of a band. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708190
17. 2023 Check Farm Trail Downtown Check, Check Sunday, June 4, 2023, 10:00 AM - 6:00 PM Admission: Free Floyd Country Tourism presents the 2nd Annual Check Farm Trail at seven participating farms and businesses throughout Check, Virginia including Lil Valley Farm, Weathertop Farm, Grateful Produce, I-Tal Acres, Seven Spring's Farm and The Soup Shop. This family-friendly experience is an up-close chance to learn about agriculture through demonstrations, tastings and farm tours and more. Food and/or products will be available for purchase at most of the farms and businesses. Times and available hours vary by farm and tour stop. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708205
18. 2023 Rotary Club of Floyd Dog Show Warren G. Lineberry Memorial Park, Floyd Sunday, June 4, 2023, 12:15 - 3:00 PM Dogs: $5.00 entry per class, Spectators: Free though donations encouraged The Rotary Club of Floyd County presents their 4th Annual Rotary Dog Show. Bring your dog, puppy, and/or faithful canine friend to compete in one or more of the dog show classes and ribbons will be awarded for each class. Classes for Dog Show include Best Tail, Best Treat Catcher, Best Smile, Best Owner-Dog Look-a-Like Contest, Best Trick, Cutest Puppy Under One Year Old, Best Bark, Best Mixed Breed Dog, Best Purebred Dog, Best Child Handler Under 12 Years Old and more. All dogs must should be on a short leash and up to date on vaccinations. The Humane Society will also have a table and possibly dogs to adopt. Adults and children ages 9 and older are welcome to participate with their dog in the various classes. Proceeds will be used to help build a dog park in Floyd. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708176
19. Music Jam and Car Cruise-In Wildwood Farms General Store, Floyd Sunday, June 4, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Enjoy a cruise-in with a variety of classic cars, motorcycles and other vehicles from 1:00-4:00 PM. All are welcome to bring their vehicles. And, bring your instruments and join in the music jam from 2:00-4:00 PM. Admission is free and all are welcome including non-musicians. The event is weather permitting. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708018
20. Clay Blevins in Concert Buffalo Mountain Brewery, Floyd Sunday, June 4, 2023, 1:00 - 4:00 PM Admission: Free Clay Blevins performs a signature mix of old and new country, pop and singer songwriter tunes. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708153
21. Book Club Meeting: Corkscrew Blacksburg Wine Lab, Blacksburg Sunday, June 4, 2023, 1:00 - 3:00 PM Admission: $40.00 Blacksburg Wine Lab presents their June Book Club Meeting featuring the book "Corkscrew" by Peter Stafford-Bow. Josh from Well Crafted Wine has picked this book specifically for the book club and will be hosting the event. The book includes a whole chapter on South Africa and Josh is inspired to share a tasting of his favorite bottles with participants from this region, along with a selection of crafted bites from Chef Bryan. The ticket price includes the wine tasting, book discussion and crafted bites to accompany the wine. RSVP is required. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708208
22. Matt Mullins in Concert Rock House Marina, Pulaski Sunday, June 4, 2023, 3:00 - 5:00 PM Admission: Free Matt Mullins performs multiple genres of music and now resides from Beckley, West Virginia after a stay in Southwest Virginia. A loud and sometimes profanity filled personality, you can't help but love to hate his shake, rattle, and roll nonsense. By spending the better part of the last decade creating songs with some of his favorite artists, (in particular The Boatmen) it has helped shape this songwriters methodology. Relating to back porch memories, and moving listeners to undoubtedly feel that he's got music in his bones. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708090
23. Sunday Mountain Music Series with Kris Hale Mountain Lake Lodge, Pembroke Sunday, June 4, 2023, 4:00 - 6:00 PM Admission: Free Kristopher Hale is a native of Roanoke, Virginia. Currently a Adjunct Professor of Music at both Radford University and Lynchburg College in Virginia, he also teaches guitar and music theory privately throughout the New River Valley and Roanoke areas. He is a sought after performer, appearing in public and private events throughout Virginia playing classical music to The Beatles. Stop by Salt Pond Pub every Sunday starting Memorial Day weekend through Sunday, August 20th for live music and delicious food and drinks. Perfect for relaxing with the whole family (furry friends welcome too). Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=707866
24. Open Mic Night (Family Friendly and 18+ Segments) The Beast of Blacksburg Pizzeria & Bar, Blacksburg Sunday, June 4, 2023, 4:00 PM - 01:00 AM Admission: Free The Beast of Blacksburg Pizzeria & Bar kicks off their Open Mic Nights with two segments offering a full evening of local talent. From 4:00-8:00 PM, family friendly material will be performed and then from 9:00 PM - 1:00 AM, the open mic is open to adult material for ages 18 and up. Note: Any group acts of more than two performers should message them on Facebook to make the necessary arrangements. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708201
25. Mist on the Mountain in Concert Palisades Restaurant, Eggleston Sunday, June 4, 2023, 5:00 - 7:30 PM Admission: Free Mist on the Mountain is an Irish Traditional Music group based in the New River Valley of southwest Virginia. From lively jigs and reels to heartbreaking laments and rollicking ballads, Mist on the Mountain provides great Irish music for any occasion. Reservations are not required, but recommended for dining area seating. Link: http://www.nextthreedays.com/FeaturedEventDetails.cfm?E=708177
Have a great weekend and thanks for reading!

So, as a lot of us expected, a recent report says that the Spurs have interest in making a rather unusual move by their standards to pick up a second first-rounder in the draft next month, presumably to acquire a PG that they hope can start next to Victor Wembanyama for the next decade-plus. It’s an idea that had been gaining traction with fans even before the real whispers started because of how much sense it seemed to make - this is seen as a relatively deep draft, with a lot of intriguing options at a position of need that are currently being mocked in the mid-to-late lottery. I'm sure most people have seen plenty of discussion about it on this sub over the past few days, and in every thread, people are asking the smart first question: "Okay, but what would it take?"
There's a lot of things that factor into that answer, and I'm just some internet dork who watches and reads about and talks about and thinks about basketball too much so I obviously have no idea what kind of discussions GMs are actually having on that front. But I thought it would at least help to look at what the positions we'd presumably be targeting have brought back in trade in the past decade, and then try to approximate value with the Spurs' assets. Firstly, though...
Why would San Antonio do this?
There's two ways to answer that question, and the first is to look at it from the perspective of what the Spurs don't have: a long-term starting Point Guard. I like Tre Jones a lot - he's everything we could've hoped for as a second-round pick and then some - but he's not a player that's going to feasibly run the offense for a contending team. He'd make a fantastic backup, and the Spurs are obviously hoping that Sochan and Victor and to a lesser extent Branham evolve into above-average playmakers, especially as the organization makes strides to get closer to their positionless basketball philosophy. But I don't think any of that is going to supersede a desire to bring a more traditional lead guard into the fold, especially considering what the team does have.
And what San Antonio has right now is a lot of picks. Maybe not as many as OKC or Utah, but a lot nonetheless. Six first-rounders that aren't our own, to be exact, plus the swap rights to Atlanta's 2026 first-rounder and over twenty second-rounders. Simply put, I can guarantee you that the team won't be making all of those picks, because it's not smart roster building to be quite so overloaded with very young players when the idea is to start being competitive again. Having a lot of young talent with promise is a good problem to have until you hit the point of having so many mouths to feed that it starts stunting their development, and we're already looking at a potential slight roster crunch this year. As an example, the Pacers, who are arguably behind us in terms of the rebuilding process now since we won the Wemby sweepstakes, have 5 picks in this year's draft, 3 of them first-rounders, and Kevin Pritchard has already come out and said they're not making all of them. The Spurs, by comparison, could potentially have FIVE first-rounders in 2025 depending on league standings over the next couple years. Eventually, some of these picks will be used as a package to get one better pick or a star player. And there's a good argument that, if it's going to be the former, now is the time, because again, this is a strong draft.
So what specific assets do we have?
I'll go ahead and rank them in descending order by my perception of their value, excluding Wemby because he's obviously the most untouchable of untouchables.

• Sochan and Vassell: Very clearly big parts of this team moving forward and likely starters when our theoretical championship window opens
• Atlanta 2027 unprotected FRP: The Hawks are such a dumpster fire right now in some ways that this could easily end up being a Top 5 pick - notably, the last year of Trae's current contract is 2026-27
• Keldon Johnson: Anyone else tired of talking about him? I'll have a more in-depth look at why trading him might make sense later in this post, but he's still just 23 years old with room to grow and even with his deficiencies, he's got a lot of attractive qualities even if his long-term ceiling might be "good sixth man."
• Atlanta 2025 unprotected FRP
• Atlanta 2026 pick swap: There's an argument that this should be above the 2025 unprotected pick because the 2025 class is looking kinda rough and 2026 includes Cameron Boozer and Cooper Flagg, but ultimately having an extra pick in an individual future draft is, I think, more valuable than a swap because it allows for a move-up package
• Toronto 2024 FRP protected 1-6: Masai Ujiri and the Raptors are a little hard to read right now, even more than usual, but I think there's a good chance this could convey next year and still be in the top 10 somewhere.
• Zach Collins: A good starting center on a bad team or a very good backup center on a better team. He's got the Pop endorsement and trading him would leave our C rotation very light unless we've got something else cooking (not a good thing with Victor coming in), but I wouldn't want him to be the sticking point that holds up a potential good deal.
• Malaki Branham: I might be overrating him a bit here because I'm personally very high on Branham, but I think it's close enough. He's shown very promising flashes at the NBA level already, and if he can get more consistent from 3 it'll be very hard to stop him from scoring. Becoming even a passable defender on top of it would give him 6MOTY-level upside.
• Chicago 2025 FRP protected 1-10: I think Chicago's gonna be forced to blow it up soon. Multiple teams below them in the standings last year should be markedly improved already this season and they might even lose Vooch. So this may not convey for a while, if at all.
• Boston 2028 pick swap, protected for 1st overall: This is probably about even with the Chicago pick, really. Things can change quick in the NBA but I don't expect Boston to be bad for a while, and again, it's just a swap.
• Charlotte 2024 pick, lottery protected: This will almost definitely not convey next year. Maaaaybe in 2025, but I'm really starting to doubt LaMelo's ability to stay on the floor. And a pick outside of the lottery in a bad draft class won't be worth all that much.
• Blake Wesley: I've never been a Wesley believer and he didn't show anything last year to convince me I might be wrong, but maybe some team likes his upside enough that he could work as a sweetener.
• Doug McDermott: A knockdown perimeter movement shooter who isn't worth much on his own, but could be attractive as a veteran piece for a team that can't otherwise hit 3s.
• All of our 20+ SRPs

We also, again, have all of our own FRPs, but there's too many unknowns across the next couple years for me to try and predict their value. Suffice it to say that I wouldn't trade next year's under any circumstances, would only let go of 2025's if it was protected for the lottery, and would probably be willing to have talks about any of them in or after 2026.
Potential Trade Analysis
Before anything else, I want to be clear that I'm not advocating for all or even most of these trades. I'm simply doing my best to demonstrate what we might have to give up based on history.
And again, there are a lot of mitigating factors to these other recent trades. Draft class strength, roster makeup, financial situation, etc. - it's impossible to ever get 1-to-1 comparisons for something like this. But I think they work pretty well as rough examples.
Oh, and here's an aggregation of the current "professional" mock drafts out there in case anyone wants an idea of what prospects we'd be talking about in each position.
One last thing: When I'm talking about trades that have been made for these picks historically, I'm only including ones that were made between the lottery and draft day or on draft night specifically, since obviously the slots for future picks in other trades wouldn't have been known at the time of the deal.
Pick #5 (Detroit)

• 2018: DAL trades w/lightly-protected 2019 1st for pick 3 (the now-famous Luka/Trae trade)

PROPOSAL: This.
We don't have a great comparison point to open with here, but this feels about right to me. No one, media or fans, can agree on Keldon's trade value, and there's some teams I think he very much would not fit on, but I think it makes a lot of sense on Detroit’s end for the reasons Edwards laid out - he opens up a ton of options for the Pistons to experiment with assuming that they actually get a full year of Cade this season and, in the best-case scenario, can become a very good sixth man for them long-term. They really need a young wing, and after the gut punch of falling to #5 where they’re in the unenviable position of having to decide between a bunch of low-floor, high-ceiling guys, they might be tempted to take out the guesswork and go with someone who’s already shown what he can do for a couple years. I'll return to this comparison later, but if Detroit takes Cam Whitmore in this spot, for example, and he becomes what Keldon is now, I think they'd call it a successful pick.
MY EVALUATION: Spurs say no. I think Keldon has more value to SAS than anyone they could be targeting in this spot unless Amen Thompson is still there and the FO is supremely confident in him becoming a decent off-ball player.
Pick #6 (Orlando)

• 2013: NOP trades to PHI with protected 2014 first for Jrue Holiday and pick 42

PROPOSAL: SAS trades Devin Vassell, CHI 1st and pick 33 for picks 6 and 36
I’ve seen rumors that ORL might want to package this and their #11 pick to move up, but I don’t know where that comes from. Can’t see Charlotte taking a deal like that, Portland and allegedly Houston want immediate help instead of two more rookies, and the #5 from Detroit wouldn’t really be worth it from the Magic’s standpoint. Maybe they can send #6 and #11 plus Suggs to the Rockets? Either way, the Magic are another of those teams I was talking about earlier that already has a lot of young players that they want to get touches, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they move one of their two picks for something else.
Holiday was coming off an all-star season, and though Vassell is obviously not an all-star (at least not yet), I do think he's a pretty decent approximation of 2013 Jrue Holiday. Same age, and the best players on their respective teams. Good defense, good outside shot and still some room to grow as a self-creator. I think he was probably looking at some MIP votes last year if he hadn’t gotten hurt.
MY EVALUATION: Spurs say no, obviously. They're not trading Devin. I think they could theoretically get this slot just by giving up a big package of picks, but at that point the evaluation becomes too difficult to really be worth it for this exercise IMO.
Pick #7 (Indiana)

• 2017: MIN trades pick 7 with Kris Dunn and LaVine to CHI for Jimmy Butler and pick 16

Obviously there’s no real similar deal to be found here - if we had a Jimmy Butler we’d be in a wildly different situation in the first place. I could try to put together a big picks package, but IND is guaranteed a very promising prospect at this spot and, in my opinion, they have too many holes in their team right now (or at least a very large defense-shaped hole) to move it for futures when they're already looking at more picks than they want to make.
MY EVAULATION: They'd ask for Vassell and they won't get him; this pick won't be ours. Moving on.
Pick #8 (Washington)

• 2016: SAC trades to PHX for picks 13 and 28, a future 2, and rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic

PROPOSAL: SAS trades Malaki Branham, Tre Jones, TOR 1st, CHA 1st for pick 8 and Delon Wright
Here’s where things start getting a little interesting, because this is the first slot where I can see one of the presumptive primary targets for the Spurs enter the mix in Anthony Black. Indiana might give him a look if they really value his defense and versatility, but I think Walker and Hendricks are more likely directions. So that brings us to Washington. That organization makes my head hurt but I have a hard time seeing a universe where they don’t make this pick. Either they keep smashing their head against the wall of irrelevance or they finally decide to tear it down, and either way it doesn’t make much sense for this pick to find its way to us.
But if the Wizards were to trade this pick, I imagine it'd be because they’re getting a young and high-upside prospect who’s already shown legit NBA flashes in Branham, which they’re sorely lacking and could reasonably be thought of as equivalent to or probably even a little bit better than Bogdanovic in 2016. This also gets them an uber-reliable young backup PG that can be had for a few cheap years (something you'd be pretty happy to get with a #28 pick) and the Spurs take back Wright for salary purposes and to have a veteran PG option of their own, though it’s entirely possible WAS values Wright more highly anyway for defensive purposes.
MY EVALUATION: Both teams say no, although if we put Wesley in there instead of Branham I think things get interesting from the Spurs' point of view. You can never predict the Wizards, but I think Michael Winger would have to be given an offer they can’t refuse to tempt them not to just stay here and pick Black or Hendricks or Whitmore or whoever else has fallen to them. Reportedly, he has the blessing to finally rebuild if he so chooses, and it’s hard to see them not starting the process off here. Not for nothing, but Winger used to work under Presti.
I do wonder what would happen if the Spurs offered Keldon for this pick straight-up, though. If Kuzma leaves, the Washington wing situation suddenly looks completely ghastly. Returning to the "Whitmore-Johnson test," if the Wizards picked Cam up here and he turned into Keldon, I think they'd be quite pleased. Not "all-time draft victory" pleased, but a huge win for a team that's mangled their draft a couple times recently.
Pick #9 (Utah)

• 2013: MIN trades to UTA for picks 14 and 21

PROPOSAL: SAS trades CHA 1st and CHI 1st for pick 9
Pretty simple here. If a team thinks that Chicago pick will convey, late lottery seems like a reasonable place to expect it to land. If the Charlotte pick conveys, it'll be in that 15-20 range.
MY EVALUATION: Utah says no because there's a good chance those picks don't convey, because picks in future drafts are always treated as less valuable than those in the same draft, and because Ainge doesn't make trades when he's not fleecing the other team for all their worth. Also, Utah doesn't really need more future picks either.
You know what? That was boring. How about another option?
PROPOSAL: SAS trades Keldon for pick 9
The Ainge factor remains, but in a vacuum I do think this is pretty fair value straight up. Let’s talk about the SAS rotation for a minute assuming they do indeed make SOME trade for a PG prospect. Wemby and Vassell are starting, no question. Collins got the Pop endorsement at the end of last season, so he’s in there too. That leaves four players fighting for two starting spots: Keldon, Sochan, Tre Jones, and the newly drafted PG. Sochan started 53 of the 56 games he played last year, and with the excellent upside he has, I have a hard time imagining he’s not getting the nod at the 3; even if he’s not, he’ll be getting tons of minutes. I and others have supported the Point Sochan experiment, but if we’re bringing in a real PG, I doubt we’ll see a whole lot more of that and they certainly won’t start a Sochan/Vassell/Keldon/Wemby/Collins lineup. So Keldon’s probably sliding to the sixth man role. And that’s fine - if he has a role on this team when they’re ready to contend again, it’ll be that one - but trading a sixth man for the right to select the guy you theoretically think can be Victor’s running mate for a decade, especially when there’s plenty of other guys off the bench that you want to keep giving minutes to, is more than reasonable all things considered.
As far as UTA goes, they need a PG prospect all on their own but I think they can get Kobe Bufkin with their #16 pick and I kinda love the fit there for him. If you’re the Jazz, would you rather have Keldon and Bufkin or, say, Wallace and Leonard Miller? I don’t know the answer to that, but I think there’s at least a chance they’d prefer the latter, as even with a pretty lean roster I don’t know how badly they want to find playing time for three first rounders this year. Keldon and Markkanen don’t even step on each other’s toes in the UTA system, and though they’ll definitely continue the tank this year to avoid losing their 2024 pick, Keldon could easily still be around on a very team-friendly deal by the time they’re ready to start pushing for the playoffs again.
MY EVALUATION: Utah says no strictly because Ainge gonna Ainge. I'm not sure I'd do it if I was the Spurs, either, because injuries will happen and Victor might get more DNPs for load management this year than any of us want to see. But it’s a conversation worth having and I can’t say I’d be falling to my knees in an HEB if it happened on draft night.
Pick #10 (Dallas)

• 2018: PHI trades to PHX for pick 16 and a Miami first in 2021
• 2017: SAC trades to POR for picks 15 and 20
• 2014: PHI trades to ORL for pick 12, 2015 second, and 2017 first*

Strap in, this is a fun one.
PROPOSAL: This.
This is the pick in the lottery that I think is most likely to move, outside of maaaybe #3. That’s kind of awkward, because Dallas wants (needs) talent to help them win now and we don’t have much of that. Specifically, they need defense and a real starting center - if they can get both of those in one guy, so much the better. Keldon doesn’t move the needle for them IMO and we’re obviously not gonna give up Vassell at this slot. The OTHER thing Dallas needs, though, is something we do have in spades: cap room. Our old friend Davis Bertans has one of the worst contracts in the league for next season - $17m for a guy whose defense deficiencies make him unplayable - and while he only has $5m guaranteed in 2024, I think Dallas needs help right now to keep from running a real risk of fracturing their relationship with their best player since Dirk.
I think it’s POSSIBLE Dallas just trades this pick with Bertans and, say, McGee for, the TOR 1st + CHA 1st + a bucket of SRPs or something, then tries their luck in free agency (to go for Jakob or Brook etc.) before using their new draft capital to seek another trade if need be, but I think it’s more likely that we’d be looking at a full-on three-teamer here. There’s a lot of options there depending on which teams are panicking or not, and most of them I don’t find overly likely. Does Boston overreact and give up Robert Williams in a psychotic episode? Does Atlanta move Capela? Eh. Maybe, I guess, but I doubt it. How about Cleveland, though?
This is a pretty skeletal framework of what a deal could look like so don’t take it as absolute gospel. Three-team trades are often complicated enough that there could easily be a few more moving pieces were such a trade to happen.
MY EVALUATION: This could be a winner. I don’t think CLE has to trade Allen yet, but if they’re not exploring the option and asking themselves some tough questions about whether the pairing with Mobley is the real long-term answer after what happened against the Knicks, they’re not doing their job. THJ shot almost the same percentage on 3s as Caris Levert did last year on over three more attempts per game, and his defense, while not amazing by any means, is better than it gets credit for. Getting rid of Rubio also gives them a little extra salary to play with in free agency - it’s not much, and it’s not a great class, but I think there’s enough there for Cleveland to find a way to make themselves a better playoff team than they were last year. This also lets them recoup some draft capital that is basically nonexistent for them right now after the Mitchell trade.
On the Spurs side, even if Rubio is basically washed, he’s an incredibly smart and experienced PG who could do a lot to mentor the young guy that we’d be bringing in at the position, and if he needs to come in for a few minutes here and there to hold down the fort, that’s fine too - we’re not trying to be good yet. I’d be surprised if we don’t bring in a vet guard in some fashion this offseason regardless. Plus, we have to get to the salary floor before the season starts anyway; why not kill three birds with one stone on this trade?
Cleveland probably still says no. I don't know if they're quite ready to pull the plug on Allen. But I don't think it's that far off.
Pick #11 (Orlando)

• 2022: NYK trades to OKC for 3 protected first-rounders (DET (protected), WAS (protected), DEN, all 2023)
• 2018: CHA trades to LAC for pick 12 and two 2s
• 2016: ORL trades with Oladipo and Ilyasova to OKC in return for Ibaka

PROPOSAL: SAS trades TOR 1st, CHI 1st, and Doug McDermott for pick 11
Last year's trade is the easiest comparison to make on this list. Not perfect, still, but with the added context of what other trades in this range have brought back, I think it still works. The DET and WAS picks were fairly heavily protected (top 18 and lottery, respectively) and I don’t think it surprised anyone that the Nuggets pick is as late as it is, so despite it being three first rounders the overall value OKC traded wasn’t huge. Even with the Knicks having financial incentive to move off the pick, the package was pretty well in line with historical trades in this range. That said, I think people are viewing the talent around this slot higher than 2022’s at the time, so the offer might need to still be a tiny bit stronger. But one could reasonably argue the TOR pick alone is more valuable than anything else that's been given for this slot in the last 10 years.
Let's talk about the Magic a little more. Let’s say Orlando is pretty happy with what they’ve got right now, which I think they should be. Banchero was a very deserving ROTY, Franz is a bucket, and they’ve got a lot of promising supplemental pieces. They looked pretty dangerous at times last year, especially in the second half of the season when they were healthy. What they DON’T have is a lot of excess draft capital. They own Denver’s pick in 2025 which isn’t likely to be very valuable, and other than that they have only their own firsts. A trade like this allows them the chance to keep adding lottery talent into the future even if they expectedly become a consistent playoff team, and since they also have #6 this year they don’t even have to completely go without a shiny new rookie to do it. Doug is included because the return still felt a tad light to me and because Orlando was 25th in the league in 3PT% last year - it’ll help if they get a full season of Gary Harris, but if they want to make a strong run at the play-in, they might need a little more. Lots of mocks like them to take Gradey Dick here, and while McDermott obviously wouldn’t figure into their long term plans, if they’re making to look a little noise this year, McDermott is almost definitely giving them more than what Dick would as a rookie.
MY EVALUATION: This is my favorite slot to target and I think it's a fair trade for both teams. Orlando doesn't necessarily need to add two more lottery guys to their roster this year when they can conceivably make a push for the play-in with what they already have, even while still getting touches for their foundational pieces. The Spurs like McDermott and I'm sure would love to keep him around all else being equal, but I don't think they'd let him stand in the way of getting their PG of the future. It might take the CHA pick as well or maybe a bunch of seconds or something, but I think we have something here all things considered.
Pick #12 (Oklahoma City)

• 2016: ATL acquires from UTA in three-team trade (sends Jeff Teague to IND who sends George Hill to UTA)

Now this spot on the other hand... There's nothing to be done here. There’s nothing to be done here. Teague averaged 15pts and 6ast per game as a starter for 5 years in ATL with an all-star season in ‘15. Hill had slightly worse stats in 4 years as a starter in Indiana. Tre Jones plus the TOR 1st might be comparable value, but OKC doesn’t need a PG even at the backup position and they already have more future picks than they know what to do with. The scuttlebutt seems to be saying OKC will trade up if anything, which makes sense, and they certainly don’t need to do anything drastic after the improvement they showed last year and Holmgren still waiting in the wings. I’ve done plenty of looking for an angle on this pick and I just don’t see one. They’ve even got plenty of cap room and no bad salary to begin with. We’ll just move on.
Pick #13 (Toronto)

• 2022: CHA trades to NYK for a Denver 1st and four 2nds, who then trade to DET after the draft with Kemba for a Milwaukee 1st in 2025
• 2017: DEN trades to UTA for pick 24 and Trey Lyles
• 2013: DAL trades to BOS for pick 16 and two future seconds

This one needs some intro first. I have no idea what the Raps are planning to do and allegedly the team doesn’t either. Reportedly, Masai still thinks they have the ability to win now - I don’t know if that means actually winning a championship or just getting to the playoffs, but I think he’s wrong either way. Regardless, he’s such a bizarre trader that it feels impossible to predict what may or may not get a deal done. He overvalues his own players to an absurd degree, but he seems to do the same with Spurs players too. How we ever got a first rounder (that became Branham) for Thad Young and Drew Eubanks I’ll never know. So yeah, there’s certainly a recent history of swaps between us and them, one of which famously worked out amazingly and a couple others that very much didn’t.
Whatever direction Toronto does decide to go in, I think they’d be best served just making this pick. Keldon doesn’t make sense for them and we’re way past the part of the lottery where we’d even consider trading him anyway. But how about another direction?
PROPOSAL: SAS trades CHA 1st and pick 44, plus more future SRPs, and extends protection on 2024 TOR 1st to top-12 in 2024, top 10 in 2025. In return, SAS receives pick 13.
I wonder if something this simple gets it done. Maybe what we can best offer Toronto is flexibility. Maybe they carry this whole “I dunno” mentality into the season and then they’re a completely mediocre team at the trade deadline again staring down the barrel of a lost season where they probably still have to give up a pick to us that could easily fall into the 7-10 range. Would they give up #13 this year to ensure they can’t lose, say, pick #8 next year if their season falls apart? I don’t know, but maybe. With this offer, they even still get to make a couple other picks this year, and they’ve had success with late firsts and early seconds recently on drafts that looked a good deal thinner. Hell, looking at recent swaps for this slot, this even feels almost like an overpay - I think PATFO would have to be very sure about the guy they’re picking to give up a top-6 protected selection from a team in TOR’s current position.
This is the pick right now that I think is the most up in the air as far as availability - it could change dramatically over the next month depending on what sorts of conversations are happening in Raptors HQ. They could move up, they could move down, they could stand pat. I have no idea. It’s also the deal that I think has the most potential to come together extremely quickly on draft night; I could see Toronto having a couple specific guys in mind here and then scrambling to make a deal if they’re suddenly off the board.
MY EVALUATION: Raptors say no, but they think long and hard about it first.
Pick #14 (New Orleans)
Has not been traded in the last decade.
Sorry to end with a whimper, but yeah, I don’t see a deal to be made here. If they’re healthy they’ll be a team no one wants to see in the playoffs, and if they’re not, there’s nothing much they can do about it at this juncture. They’ve got plenty of future picks, they won’t want anyone on the SAS squad that we’d give up for pick 14, and there will absolutely be talent here that can help them immediately; they’re keeping this. I GUESS they might look for someone to dump Valanciunas in favor of one of the free agent Centers, but that would be kinda risky on their part and they’d probably want a return that’s less abstract than just the cap room and a few second rounders or whatever.
JUST-FOR-FUN PROPOSAL: This hilariousness.
I expect PHX to have better offers on the table for Ayton, but after his disappearing act in the playoffs I wouldn’t say it’s a certainty. Maybe they’re so tired of him that this feels like an okay return, and maybe New Orleans thinks they can unlock whatever potential might be left. This also gets the Spurs the veteran C they reportedly want; JoVal isn’t exactly an elite rim protector but he’s a heck of a rebounder and can stretch the floor on the other end.
Like I said, though, this is just for kicks anyway for the people who want a wild idea; I don’t think the Pels want Ayton and I don’t think they should.
MY EVALUATION: New Orleans says no because they're not insane and Phoenix probably does too. But it was a fun time in the trade machine.
So, just to recap...

• Picks I can’t see us getting: 6-8, 12, 14
• Probably not, but I could believe it: 5, 9, 13
• Sweet spot: 10 and 11

Pick #11 is the one I’d spend most of my time going after on the phone if I was an executive. #10 has its merits, especially because I personally like the Rubio idea a lot, but we can get a Cory Joseph or George Hill in free agency just as easily to fill that role, and the larger problem is that we’re already going to be dealing with a roster crunch that Bertans and/or McGee would exacerbate. #11 could end up costing nothing but picks that we have an excess, plus maybe McDermott, who we were perfectly willing to move at the deadline anyway and who would actually open up one of those valuable roster spots as well. I also don’t think there’s much danger in Dallas taking the guy we want if he is still on the board at 10.
Again, don’t take my proposals as any kind of hard offers; several of them I wouldn’t even support myself, as you can see. This is just meant as a quick-and-dirty (well, at least dirty) reference for what kind of value we might be looking at in these discussions.

So with AEW: Fight Forever being about one month away from release and more information about the game coming to light, a major factor I've been thinking about is what the full roster of the game will look like. I made a comment a few days ago doing a bit of a breakdown of all the confirmed names, but I've gone further down the rabbit hole with updated info and thought to formulate a very close-to-complete list. As a point of reference, the base roster size is assumedly somewhere between 51-59 playable characters (confirmed to be 50+).

• Cover Athletes: Adam Page, Britt Baker, Bryan Danielson, Chris Jericho, Jade Cargill, Jon Moxley, Kenny Omega, MJF, Orange Cassidy, Sting (10)
• Official Press Material Images: Abadon, Hikaru Shida, Thunder Rosa, Yuka Sakazaki (4)
• Official Gameplay Trailers: Adam Cole, Darby Allin, Jungle Boy, Kris Statlander, Nyla Rose, Pentagon Jr (6)
• Convention Gameplay Footage: CM Punk, Paul Wight, Ricky Starks (3)
• Achievement List Photos: Christian Cage, Christopher Daniels, Chuck Taylor, Dustin Rhodes, Lance Archer, Matt Hardy, Matt Jackson, Miro, Nick Jackson, Owen Hart, Pac, Sammy Guevara, Trent Barretta (13)
• AEWGames Livestream Confirmation: Rey Fenix (1)
• Kenny Omega SI Interview Confirmation: Cody Rhodes (1)
• Apparent Fightful Confirmations: John Silver, Ruby Soho (2)
• Potential Fightful Confirmations *: The Bunny, Keith Lee (2)

* There was a Fightful report a while back that The Bunny, Keith Lee, and Ricky Starks were scheduled to record content for the Road to Elite mode, but they were seemingly nixed for at least the time being. I don't know if that 100% confirms that they are on the roster, but with Starks now outright confirmed, it seems more likely they'll be in.
So that gets us to 40 (or potentially/probably 42) total confirmed roster spots at this point and around 10+ still remaining unconfirmed at this time. Before speculating on who the remaining spots will be, it'd be worthwhile to go over who is confirmed to not be part of the initial base roster for Fight Forever.

• Confirmed Non-Base Roster Members: Anthony Bowens, The Blade, The Butcher, Cash Wheeler, Claudio Castagnoli, Danhausen, Dax Harwood, Evil Uno, Isiah Kassidy, Jake Hager, Jamie Hayter, Marq Quen, Max Caster, Ortiz, Santana, Stu Grayson, Toni Storm (17)

I believe I've figured out that Toni Storm (and Jamie Hayter) are not on the initial roster because Thunder Rosa is apparently the default AEW Women's Champion in the game, and I'd assume they'd have the most recent champion available as the default (i.e. MJF is the default AEW World Champion). With that in mind, I'm going to make the assumption that anyone who debuted after Toni Storm will also not be in the base roster and instead will be part of roster updates / DLC.
In addition, I'm going with the assumption that legends that haven't wrestled in AEW (i.e. Arn Anderson, Jake Roberts, Mark Henry, Taz) sans Owen Hart will not be playable on the initial roster, and will instead be saved for some sort of "Legends of Wrestling" DLC down the road. I could very well be wrong, but it'd make my remaining speculation that much easier lol.
So in terms of the remaining potential base-roster spots, I've formulated a list of people I'd most likely expect to see on the roster.

• Alex Reynolds - Tag partner of John Silver
• Brodie Lee - AEW Legend
• Eddie Kingston - Main evented a PPV in a World title match + was a main player in the Exploding Barbed Wire Death Match (I'd be most disappointed if he wasn't in the game)
• Frankie Kazarian - Inaugural AEW Tag-Team Champion + was partners with Christopher Daniels
• Luchasaurus - Tag partner of Jungle Boy (at the time of game development)
• Powerhouse Hobbs - Tag partner of Ricky Starks (at the time of game development)
• Riho - Inaugural AEW Women's Champion
• Scorpio Sky - See Frankie Kazarian

Assuming all of these names are included in the base roster (it's not guaranteed, but I feel relatively confident about most of them), then that would put the roster total to 50. That would then leave us with seemingly under ten more spots to fill. I've kinda formulated lists of who I think could be those names. Most of them won't be in the game initially in theory, but I'd expect most who aren't to be added down the road.

• Potential Roster Inclusions: Andrade el Idolo, Bobby Fish, Brian Cage, Ethan Page, Jay Lethal, Kyle O’Reilly, Malakai Black, Penelope Ford, Serena Deeb, Shawn Spears, Tay Melo, Wardlow (12)
• Dark Horse Roster Inclusions: Anna Jay, Billy Gunn, Brandi Rhodes, Brody King, Buddy Matthews, Daniel Garcia, Dante Martin, Emi Sakura, Hook, Jeff Hardy, Kip Sabian, QT Marshall, Swerve Strickland, Wheeler Yuta (14)

We'll ultimately find out the full roster soon, but wanted to form together this thought experience for the heck of it anyways lol.

Where we are picking at the players all have flaws and need improvement, but there is talent.
17: Dereck Lively - 7'1 Backup Center, can slide into the Javale McGee role. Shotblocking, good at moving his feet, 7'8 wingspan and a lob threat. Finishing other than lobs or pointblank layups is suspect. Needs time to build up his body. Foul Prone.
17: Kris Murray - 6'8 Wing, not as good as his brother but looks like an NBA ready role player who can hit the spotup three, defend, playmake all at a decent level. Long arms. Doesnt have amazing athleticism and shot looks streaky. Older rookie.
47: Adem Bona - 6'10- Backup Center with high motor and a beast within 5ft of the basket. Athletic lob threat and shows ability to shotblock as well as switch on the perimeter. High Hustle but zero post moves and turnover prone. Doubtful he drops this far but has value as a high energy big ala Brandon Clarke.
47: Mouhamed Gueye - 6'11 Fluid athlete that flashes some shooting, playmaking potential, but not really a shotblocker. Weighs 210. Reminds me of a discount Ayton.
47: Jordan Miller - 6'7 Forward. Seems to be an overall good player, not an otherwordly athlete. Troy Brown comparison?
47: Dillon Jones - 6'6 235 strong forward, good rebounder, plays with a lot of force. For some reason seems like a Memphis Grizzlies type of player. Hardnosed basketball. Good finisher. Not extremely athletic or a standout three point shooter but form seems okay. Grant Williams/David Roddy?

Truck series Playoff Standings (Race 10/16)
1) Dean Thompson 1 Loss 282 (6 PP)
2) Josh Reaume 1 Loss 194 (8 PP)
3) Keith McGee 1 Loss 113 (7 PP)
4) Spencer Boyd 311 (1 PP)
5) Kris Wright 269
6) Daniel Dye 261
7) Bret Holmes 253
8) Rajah Caruth 238
9) Colby Howard 234
10) Mason Massey 217 (1 PP)
11) Tyler Ankrum 211
12) Hailie Deegan 209
13) Lawless Alan 205
14) Timmy Hill 202 (1 PP)
15) Carson Hocevar 191
16) Matt DiBenedetto 177
17) Chase Purdy 175
18) Nick Sanchez 174
19) Kaden Honeycutt 169
20) Christian Eckes 164
21) Tanner Gray 157
22) Matt Crafton 156
23) Stewart Friesen 156
24) Taylor Gray 146
25) Jake Garcia 142
26) Ben Rhodes 135
27) Parker Kligerman 133
28) Brennan Poole 1 Loss 129 (7 PP)
29) Zane Smith 122
30) Grant Enfinger 105
Other Losers that most likely won't make a start in the playoffs
32) Johnny Sauter 1 Loss 102 (5 PP)
38) Tim Viens 1 Loss 60 (7 PP)
39) Ed Jones 1 Loss 60 (7 PP)
40) Stefan Parsons 1 Loss 60 (7 PP)
41) Chad Chastain 1 Loss 60 (7 PP)
43) Stephen Mallozzi 1 Loss 58 (6 PP

I’ve met or known of several people with essentially the same first and last name for their given names. For example: Matthew Matthews, John Johns, Martina Martin, William Wilson (even Kris Kristofferson).
My question - why? I love alliteration, but this seems like…a lot. If you, a family member, or a friend have a name like this (or you named a child in this way) - what was the thinking behind it?
Caveat: This does not refer to women who took their husband’s name after marriage, like Lauren Bush becoming Lauren Bush Lauren. Also, I know this is more common in cultures with patronymic surname traditions, like in many Scandinavian countries.

I’ve met or known of several people with essentially the same first and last name for their given names. For example: Matthew Matthews, John Johns, Martina Martin, William Wilson (even Kris Kristofferson).
My question - why? I love alliteration, but this seems like…a lot. If you, a family member, or a friend have a name like this (or you named a child in this way) - what was the thinking behind it?
Caveat: This does not refer to women who took their husband’s name after marriage, like Lauren Bush becoming Lauren Bush Lauren. Also, I know this is more common in cultures with patronymic surname traditions, like in many Scandinavian countries.

Staked: 174.95u, Profit/Loss: +11.72u, ROI: 6.72%, Parlay Suggestions: 48-19
As always, scroll down for UFC Vegas 74 Breakdowns. I just like to recap the previous card before looking forward.
UFC Vegas 73
Staked: 15.0u
Profit/Loss: +2.66u
ROI: 17.7%
Parlay Suggestions: 4-1
That was a really fun card! Lots of finishes, and lots of near misses with finishes too. I don’t think we’ve ever seen a card with so many near finishes in the last 30 seconds of a round. Good fun!
Another profitable week, but again one where bad beats and bad luck stopped the total figure from being as lucrative as it probably should have been. Michael Johnson looking great and suddenly getting slept out of nowhere, Ilir Latifi losing a very close decision as a moderate underdog due to getting wobbled in the third, Sato and Gorimbo having about 8 minutes of back control and a knockdown but no finish…I’m going through a real rough patch of bad variance. Despite that, I think my reads continue to be sharp and I’m still making profit most weeks.
As always, here’s my fight-by-fight review of my bets:
✅ +0.15u Co-Main Event Moneylines (Arb’d out of an early Shahbazyan bet for guaranteed profit)
✅ 1u Shahbazyan R1 or Hernandez R3 (+310)
This fight looked pretty much like we all expected it to, with Edmen looking better than his price tag in round 1, but falling off a cliff and making the price look more realistic by the 2nd and 3rd. I liked the value on Edmen originally but arbed out of it for a slight profit in favour of hunting the early and late round props instead. This was a pretty shrewd move, despite sweating it in the second, as Edmen has literally 0 chance after R1 ended. Pretty much predicted that fight to a tee.
❌ 2u Emily Ducote to Win (+125)
Aaand here’s a fight I didn’t predict correctly at all! I struggled to pay attention to it to be honest. Ducote was just a step behind pretty much the whole time. Loopy didn’t even try to wrestle that much and Ducote couldn’t capitalise in a striking fight, making it a bad read and bet by me.
❌ 2u Michael Johnson to Win (+130)
A sharp bet that didn’t win. You get what you pay for sometimes…and I paid for a bet on Michael Johnson. He was looking pretty damn good in round 1, but suddenly got slept in the second. A shame, as I don’t think many were expecting that and Johnson was very much looking like the value side. I can’t really complain that much though, it’s the history of the Michael Johnson.
✅ 3u Karolina Kowalkiewicz to Win (-110)
My best bet of the card, and my highest stake. Go on Karolina! I’ve got so much love for that woman, the journey she’s been on in the last few years has clearly been a challenging one. Seeing her smile in the post-fight interview just warms my heart. Also helps that my read was a quality one in that fight. Went flying in on the -110 pricetag because I thought it was ridiculous, and the -175 I valued her at was much more accurate. Karolina isn’t as washed as everyone thinks, the level of competition she struggled against was so elite for the time.
✅ 1u Gilbert Urbina ITD (+210)
❌ 0.5u Gilbert Urbina by Submission (+333)
This was a late bet and I didn’t even break this one down in the initial betting preview. I barely did any tape, just saw Cosce looked like shit on the scales and Urbina looked ready for a war. Surprised we didn’t see the line move a whole lot more given how obvious it looked. Urbina absolutely suffocated him, I felt exhausted just watching that opening round. Great performance from Urbina.
❌ 1u Ilir Latifi to Win (+163)
Some will disagree, but I think this was still a good bet. I was happy enough with what I saw from Latifi on the mat to feel validated in taking him as the dog there. If he hadn’t have gotten wobbled in the third round (damage that he recovered from after about 20 seconds), he would have won the 3rd round pretty clearly, and the fight. Either way, betting him at +163 was definitely the value side. I’ll take the moral victory there, it was only 1u play.
✅ 1.5u Chase Hooper to Win (+120)
✅ 0.5u Chase Hooper by Submission or Decision (+175)
Haha holy shit Chase Hooper! His striking was popping off! My initial write up for this was comedic and non-committal when it was -110 but seeing Hooper get to +120 was way too far, as he should definitely not have been the underdog. Moved in on that price later in the week, and very happy I did. Hooper’s only going to look bad against a good striker, putting him in the cage with someone who has the same strengths and weaknesses as him puts him in a great spot.
❌ 2u Sato/Gorimbo FDGTD + Shahbazyan/Hernandez FDGTD (+125)
Crazy that Sato v Gorimbo had so much back control time, a hard knockdown and a very gassed fighter but STILL didn’t have a finish. Frustrating result, that ultimately turned a great event into just a decent one for my results.
UFC Vegas 74
Kai Kara-France v Amir Albazi
I can very comfortably say that these kind of fights really aren’t my forte. It’s a lot harder to differentiate between two well-rounded, lower weight-class point fighters, when often the metric that separates them is “This guy is an A- whilst his opponent is a B+”. I’d much rather be looking at a fight where someone’s strengths match up against their opponent’s weakness or something.
Both of these guys are really decent strikers. Albazi has consistently used takedowns as part of his game, but KKF’s takedown defence has been really solid in his UFC career so I’m not sure it’s going to actually be of much use here. Albazi’s ability to mix things up should overall be a useful tool in winning some exchanges and minutes though.
On the flipside, the level of competition that both men have fought against in their UFC careers is night and day. Albazi’s done exactly what you’d want against the people they’ve put in front of him, but KKF’s been competing against the division’s top 5 for some time. That doesn’t always mean what we think it means though, but it at least creates the narrative that Albazi could be stepping up slightly too soon?
I see why Albazi’s the favourite due to his unknown ceiling and the hopes for his future, but this one definitely should be lined closely. I don’t see anywhere that stands out as a massive advantage for either man, but instead Albazi just feels slightly better overall. As I said, it’s a dodgy metric to quantify or refer to in tape…so it’s a pass fight for me. Excited to see exactly how Good Albazi is, he’s been ready for this step up for some time.
How I line this fight: Kai Kara-France +110 (48%), Amir Albazi -110 (52%)
Bet or Pass: Pass
Notable Props: None
Alex Caceres v Daniel Pineda
Jesus Christ, this is the co-main event!?
Anyway, both guys are very experienced and passed their prime years, but they’re clearly at different stages along the decline. Caceres actually appears to have taken a step up in his overall ability since he hit 32, which is quite rare. Pineda, on the other hand, is definitely a declining fighter.
Pineda’s stock was really low prior to that Tucker Lutz victory. Andre Fili beat the piss out of him, Cub Swanson knocked him out the fight before, and his second debut win over Herbert Burns has also aged terribly. Despite all this, Pineda did actually look really good against Lutz, using his pressure and dangerousness to make Lutz uncomfortable and force the scramble and catch the choke.
Lutz is a pretty bad striker though, and Caceres should be much better at managing distance and using his footwork to not get walked down by Pineda. Bruce Leeroy has always had pretty dodgy submission defence though, so I see a path to victory for Pineda if he can land takedowns and force some grappling exchanges here. However, that’s easier said than done and Caceres deserves to be favourite, due to the improvements he seems to have made to his overall striking, process and takedown defence. Pineda’s got the finishing upside here, but otherwise I think Caceres can frustrate him to a decision loss.
How I line this fight: Alex Caceres -163 (62%) Daniel Pineda +163 (38%)
Bet or Pass: Pass
Notable Props: None
Jim Miller v Jared Gordon
Well I did a big old breakdown for Miller vs Klein, and it got scrapped. That’s the price I pay for getting the work many weeks ahead.
We know what Miller’s limitations are as a Lymes Disease suffering 40 year old man – He’s got 5 minutes to find a finish or the wheels will fall off. As Miller’s gotten older, his ability to put together a solid wrestling performance also appears to be dwindling, so most of his finishing equity comes from throwing bombs on the feet.
The UFC should really be much more selective with who they put in front of Miller, as there’s enough fighters that’ll fall victim to Miller’s limited path to victory and he’s been one of the company’s most loyal soldiers for more than a decade. Instead, they give him a very competent grappler in Jared Gordon.
I’m quite confident that Gordon can fend off Miller’s grappling threat whilst both men are fresh. He’s a capable grappler and has survived against the likes of Leonardo Santos and Joe Solecki. He’s also a very decent wrestler, so I question whether or not Miller’s even going to be successful in grounding Gordon in the first place. In terms of their striking, neither man is elite by any stretch, but Gordon’s naturally going to have advantages in speed and athleticism, as well as a big edge in cardio.
The only real narrative I can see that would concern me against betting on Gordon here, is what happened in his recent fight with Bobby Green. The headbutt and following ground strikes put Gordon completely out cold. He was asleep. Why is he fighting in a scheduled bout just over a month later?
Despite the fact he’s clearly a submission threat first, Jim Miller will definitely plant his feet and trade hands in that first round, as we’ve seen him opt to do these days. He absolutely could catch Gordon, especially if Gordon’s chin isn’t recovered from getting slept by Bobby Green’s flying headbutt.
Other than that, I think Gordon’s a nightmare matchup for Miller at this stage in Jim’s career. I can see how this bet loses, but I genuinely think there's value on Gordon at -188, and I'll be playing him for 2u. It would be more, but that post-concussion durability question is a valid one.
How I line this fight: Jim Miller +400 (20%), Jared Gordon -400 (80%)
Bet or Pass: 2u Jared Gordon to Win (-175)
Notable Props: None
Live Betting Lean: If the fight hits round 2, you should be fine to bet Gordon. Hopefully Miller looks decent in round 1 and it brings the line closer, because he will fall apart.
Tim Elliot v Victor Altamirano
I assume everyone saw Tim Elliot’s tweet a couple of weeks ago? Poor guy. Fuck Kevin Croom. Someone needs to make a documentary about Glory MMA & Fitness though, that camp has produced some spicy drama over the years. If you didn’t see it, it turns out his wifey and long time training partner, Gina Mazany, has been having an affair with Kevin Croom, another of their training partners. Apparently Mazany even went home with Croom after the wedding…
Anyway. Tim Elliot is a really underappreciated fighter. His overall style isn’t pretty or exciting, but he’s a gritty dude with great grappling ability that can prove to be a nightmare for any opponent. With a style like that, it’s very difficult to look good against him. Elliot beat Tagir Ulanbekov in his most recent fight, and went to a very close 29-28 decision loss against Matheus Nicolau before that. Both impressive performances for a 36 year old.
He faces Victor Altamirano in this one, which is pretty weird matchmaking. We last saw Altamirano when he was neutralising the chaotic and dangerous threat of Vinicius Salvador. Props to him for making light word of a scary finisher, but I think we saw that Salvador isn’t actually a very good fighter and that win won’t necessarily age well. Before that, he beat a similar fighter in Daniel Lacerda, the R1 chaos guy that looks like Jose Aldo for two minutes, and Mike Jackson for the other three. Same conclusion there: well done for finding your path to victory, but those opponents are essentially beating themselves and it’s probably not a reflection of your own merits.
Altamirano’s fights have often turned into very grapply affairs, which I think is bad news for him against a guy like Tim Elliot. In just 48 minutes of UFC/DWCS time, the Mexican has been taken down eight times…and has faced 31 attempts. His DWCS fight showed that Elliot should have a clear and easy path to victory here – by landing takedowns and just setting up shop in full guard for the remainder of the round. Something Tim has done with relative ease in his career.
The reason I opened this breakdown with reference to Elliot’s private life is not to be a troll, but to highlight my main concern for him. Honestly, I think I’m more concerned about Tim Elliot beating himself, than Altamirano bringing anything serious to the table that will trouble him. With all that’s gone in in Elliot’s life recently, that’s an undeniable red flag, and there’s going to be questions about where his head is at, and how hard he’s been committing to the training camp. He’s also 36, which is no spring chicken for Flyweight.
That last paragraph is enough to stop me from betting Elliot, despite thinking this is a great matchup for him. I previously placed a 2u bet on him when he was -150, but have decided to cash out for a minimal +0.14u arb'd profit.
Some of you may have seen Elliott bragging about weighing 150lbs currently, which seems like a pretty big number for a guy who fights around 125lbs. That's already a red flag that he may have a bad weight cut. Furthermore, whilst it might seem like a dumb reasoning, I went for some drinks recently with a friend currently going through a divorce due to their cheating wife, and an insight to the depression and mental struggles it presents has kind of made it impossible for me to put money on Elliott.
Rooting for Elliott big here. I hope he gets it done and drops heat on those scumbags when he gets time on the mic.
How I line this fight (UPDATED): Tim Elliot -150 (60%), Victor Altamirano +150 (40%)
Bet or Pass: None, I cashed out
Notable Props: None
Karine Silva v Ketlen Souza
It’s a real shame we didn’t get to see Karine Silva face Priscila Cachoeira, but the latter just cannot make weight. Surprised the UFC kept her around as long as they did, after multiple cancelled fights and for eye gouging Gillian Robertson.
Anyway, I know nothing about Ketlen Souza, but I’m kind of waiting for the opportunity to fade Karine. I think women who can consistently finish fights usually get pushed to the top of the priority list by the UFC match-makers, but Silva really didn’t look that good in the minute-by-minute of her last two fights. Relying on finishing ability at 125lbs is sure to run out eventually, and I hope there’s a big + number on the opponent when the times comes.
Fingers crossed Silva gets another finish here and the hype train rolls on, because there will come a time where someone beats her as a + money underdog.,
How I line this fight: No idea, not done tape.
Bet or Pass: Pass
Notable Props: None
Guram Kutateladze v Jamie Mullarkey (Fight Cancelled)
Guram Kutateladze is a pretty impressive fighter, but it’s hard to really know where the true evaluation lies when your initial expectations vs reality are so incomparable. It happens quite often, when a short notice debutant does much better than we expected, and we end up massively over-rating them compared to how we’d view them if they had a more normal debut (Lando Vannata is my favourite example, but you can also reference Alex Hernandez or Jasmin Jasudavicius). That guy who fought Movsar Evloev could turn out to be the same, remember that!
The difference with Guram is that he’s actually repeated the performance against Gamrot later against Damir Ismagulov, so he is very much legit. Going to a split decision with both men (and winning the majority of the media scorecards both times) is a fucking impressive thing to do in your first two UFC bouts. Both fights showed a well-roundedness to his game, with both being hotly contested in the grappling and striking departments.
People have been eagerly waiting to see what Guram can do against more reasonable opposition, and I guess we’ll find out against Jamie Mullarkey. Mullarkey’s a well-rounded guy, but he doesn’t really appear overly impressive in any one area. We’ve seen him outstrike and get outstruck, we’ve seen him grapple too. Most of those instances came against pretty low level competition as well – competition that’s much worse than Ismagulov and Gamrot.
There’s a lot of MMA maths involved in breaking down this fight, but Mullarkey’s not really faced a fighter with the style of Guram so far in his UFC career. Whilst I’m confident that Guram is as good as we hope he’s going to be, and I’m pretty sure he wins here, I’m not sure I can really talk my way to the -300 pricetag here. Guram’s ability is a badly kept secret and we’re all hotly anticipating his next fight, which is the main reason he’s such a massive favourite here.
How I line this fight: Guram Katateladze -200 (67%), Jamie Mullarkey +200 (33%)
Bet or Pass: Pass
Notable Props: None
Jinh Yu Frey v Elise Reed
Oh god, am I actually attempting to write something for this fight? Elise Reed is probably the worst fighter on the roster aside from Braxton Smith, Victoria Leonardo and Mandy Bohm. She got submitted by Loma Lookboonmee in her last fight for fuck’s sake.
Jinh Yu Frey on the other hand is actually a complicated fighter. I think she’s genuinely got skills and well-roundedness on her side, and I wouldn’t have expected her to have such bad results in the UFC when she originally signed.
At the end of the day, Frey is 38 years old coming off a brutal KO loss just 6 months ago…and Elise Reed is just shit. I think there’s a strong chance that Frey looks like a big hindsight favourite due to actually being the better fighter, but old age and proven unreliability are impossible to ignore. So is getting bonked in under a minute at 115lbs.
I rolled the dice on Michael Johnson last event, opting to ignore the glaringly obvious track record of him “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” (an actual quote from the breakdown)…so I think I’m going to re-assess my stance on some of these fighters that have stylistic advantages and red flags.
So in short, I think Frey should win this fight but I don’t trust her enough to bet her. The regret from a loss stings more than the joy of a win.
How I line this fight: Jinh Yu Frey -125 (56%), Elise Reed +125 (44%)
Bet or Pass: Pass
Notable Props: None
Luan Lacerda v Da’Mon Blackshear
I’ve got a strong opinion on the betting line for this fight, but it’s not even really because of either man’s skillset. It’s purely MMA maths.
If you watched Luan Lacerda’s debut against Cody Stamann, you’ll know that a 29-28 UD for the American does a real disservice in explaining how well Lacerda did in his debut. I personally think Lacerda should have been awarded the victory in that one, and he wasn’t even fighting with his optimum skillset.
On the other hand, you have Da’Mon Blackshear, who is 0-1-1 having drawn with Youseff Zalal and Farid Basharat. I’ll admit, he looked better than I expected in the Basharat win, but there really is no justification for Lacerda being given the slightest of favouritism to beat Blackshear. If you look at their regional records, Lacerda has a win over Raulian Paiva, whilst Blackshear has a loss to Kris Moutinho.
Stylistically, Lacerda’s got decent enough striking to assume he can at least match Blackshear’s, if not be better than it. He was giving Stamann problems on the feet. Blackshear does his best work when he’s offensively grappling, but Lacerda’s a BJJ black belt who I assume will have no problem in matching the successes that Zalal and Farid Basharat had. Blackshear also slowed down against the latter, whilst Lacerda grew into the Stamann fight.
How he’s -125 I’ll never know. Get on it soon.
How I line this fight: Luan Lacerda -200 (67%), Da’Mon Blackshear +100 (33%)
Bet or Pass: 3u Luan Lacerda to Win (-125)
Notable Props: None
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos v Abubakar Nurmagomedov
EDIT: Initially I'd said that I wasn't really fussed about this fight due to both men's inactivity, but I've dived into tape a bit deeper since being way ahead of schedule, and i think I like Abu here.
This one just feels like a simple striker vs grappler affair, but the more i watched, the more I started to think that Nurmagomedov can actually hang relatively well on the feet too. He's got a pretty nice jab, which he can utilise to good affect alongside some good footwork (seen best in the first couple of rounds against Jared Gooden).
Given that my opinion of Abu's striking has grown, there's a fair argument to be made that he should clearly be the favourite here, due to having multiple path to victories and fewer clear paths to losses.
Annoyed I didn't commit to more tape earlier in the break as I could have gotten a much better number!
How I line this fight: Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos +137 (42%), Abubakar Nurmagomedov -137 (58%)
Bet or Pass: 2u Abubakar Nurmagomedov to Win (-105)
Notable Props: None
Maxim Grishin v Philipe Lins
When this fight was originally announced for October of 2022, I went flying in straight away on Maxim Grishin at like -137. If memory serves, the public shifted Grishin’s odds to about -180 on fight day…before Lins wasn’t medically cleared and the bout was cancelled during the card.
Lins fought OSP a few months after that fight fell through, and he looked like he’d really sorted himself out from a physical sense – I remember feeling grateful that the Grishin fight got scrapped because that’s not the guy I was trying to fade!
I had good things to say about Lins from his PFL days, but a lack of specials supplements in the UFC and he came into the company looking flat. Now he’s moved down to 205lbs, he looks pretty shredded and in a much more suitable weight class. Perhaps he and his supplier changed up the formula, or he’s just putting in work work.
I think Grishin himself is a decent enough striker, but his UFC tape definitely comes with some asterisks. There’s very little that can really be taken from the debut loss to Tybura, as he was severely undersized in a short notice fight. He looked good against Jacoby, and probably deserved to win on the scorecards there…and then he confidently beat William Knight, who is one of the worst UFC fighters we’ve seen in recent years.
Grishin’s getting up there in age now – he’s 39 years old and doesn’t seem to be trying to beat the clock. He’s not a particularly hard hitter by 205lbs standards, and his takedown defence looked pretty questionable against William Knight. The Russian does his best work at kickboxing range, and he’s been lucky to engage in these low volume affairs against guys that don’t look to pressure, close the distance or push a pace.
Lins is going to present a very different style, where he’ll likely provide a quicker tempo and a variety of ranges – forcing Grishin to defend takedowns and fight in the clinch. We saw William Knight have a fair bit of success in R3 in hunting for takedowns against Grishin, but Lins’ grappling should actually be good enough to secure some top time.
The varied approach, combined with what looked like pretty decent cardio and power from 205lbs Lins, is likely going to make this one a pretty competitive scrap where Lins is setting the tone and realm of the fight. I think the Brazilian should therefore be favoured slightly.
I got in on Grishin early last time, but +140 on Lins appeals to me now. I’ll be on him for 2u.
How I line this fight: Maxim Grishin +120 (45%), Philipe Lins -120 (55%)
Bet or Pass: 2u Philipe Lins to Win (+140)
Notable Props: None
Andrei Arlovski v Don’Tale Mayes
Andrei Arlovski is a real hustler. The way he has negotiated himself to a big UFC contract and then taken on anyone and everyone outside the top 15…it’s genius. He’s getting paid a decent sum for minimal work. Arlovski is not fussed by the results of these fights, I’m certain of it. He won’t fight for your money.
There are some exceptions every now and then, but almost all of Arlovksi’s fights turn out the same way: tepid striking affairs across 15 minutes. Things only deviate from that blueprint when you have a striker that’s particularly dangerous who rocks him and scores a finish soon after (Tom Aspinall, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Francis Ngannou are the only ones across the last 18 fights since 2017 started). Considering Don’Tale Mayes hasn’t actually landed a standing KO in his UFC career makes me think the 15 minute trend continues.
At 265lbs, we know that most likely anyone in the division has the power to generate that fight ending power. We also know that Arlovski is 44 years old and coming off the most damage he’s sustained in a fight for about 4 years, so I am hoping the books provide us with a playable line with the overs. Anything -125 or better would do!
Alternatively,I'll also be looking to play Arlovski by Decision at +175 or better. He's got a great talent for mesmirising his opponent and lulling them into a low output affair. And the judges seem to love him. I think Arlovski has no interest in scoring a finish either, so you're getting a much better price for what is essentially very close in probability to his moneyline.
How I line this fight: Andrei Arlovski +100 (50%), Don’Tale Mayes +100 (50%)
Bet or Pass: 1.5u Andrei Arlovski to Win by Decision (+200)
Notable Props: Overs! Arlovski lulls opponents into sparring matches and Mayes doesn’t hit too hard anyway.
​
Given that we've got a week off the UFC I'll be getting started on UFC 289 tomorrow. Already seen a few lines floating around that I think are very interesting, so want to get in early.
Bets
Road To UFC
✅ 1.5u Taiyilake Nueraji to Win (Road to UFC) (-110)
✅ 1u Taiyilake Nueraji & Rei Tsuruya to Win (Road to UFC) (+110)
✅ 0.5u Taiyilake Nueraji, Rei Tsuruya & Mark Climaco All to Win (Road to UFC) (+150)
✅ 1u Xiao Long to Win (Road to UFC) (+120)
❌ 0.5u Xiao Long ITD (Road to UFC) (+300)
UFC Vegas 74
2u Alex Caceres to Win & Arlovski/Mayes Over 1.5 Rounds (+102)
2u Jim Miller & Jamie Mullarkey to Win (-125)
2.5u Jim Miller ITD (-105)
0.5u Jim Miller in Round 1 (+235)
2u Abubakar Nurmagomedov to Win (-105)
1.5u Andrei Arlovski to Win by Decision (+200)
2u Muin Gafarov to Win (+120)
3u Luan Lacerda to Win (-125)
1u Luan Lacerda to Win by Submission or Decision (+100)
2u Philipe Lins to Win (+140)
0.2u Fun Parlay - Abubakar Nurmagomedov, Elise Reed & Andrei Arlovski all to Win by Decision (+1800)
Parlay Do's: Luan Lacerda, Alex Caceres, Arlovski/Mayes Over 1.5 Rounds, Jim Miller, Jamie Mullarkey
Parlay Don’ts: Karine Silva, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Maxim Grishin, Tim Elliot
UFC 289 Early Bets (Preview will drop 4th June)
0.5u Irene Aldana to Win (+300)
5u Blake Bilder to Win (-200)

I saw a video from Jackson Krueger Sports that really piqued my interest about creating an NFL team from scratch, and I wanted to give it a shot of my own. I changed some of the rules, but basically my objective in doing this was to see how much worse I am at this than actual NFL front offices. Here is my post from last offseason where I named my team the Birmingham Miners and detailed the moves I made in year one. My team predictably had a number of serious deficiencies after only one offseason, which made this second offseason a real opportunity to build this roster from a higher starting point.
 

Stage 0: Last Year’s Results

On the plus side, I found a lot of midround talent in the draft last year – Christian Watson tied for the rookie lead in receiving touchdowns last year, Akayleb Evans played significant snaps on defense as a fourth-round corner, and Jamaree Salyer started 14 games last season at left tackle in relief of Rashawn Slater. Additionally, I found punter Ryan Stonehouse in undrafted free agency who led the NFL in average yards per punt in 2022. In free agency, I signed JuJu Smith-Schuster who led the Super Bowl winning Chiefs’ wide receivers in yards and receptions in 2022, as well as landing solid contributing pieces like Raheem Mostert, Jermaine Eluemunor, Arden Key, and Jordan Reid. My most big-ticket free agent, Terron Armstead, started 13 games and made the Pro Bowl, and my most big-ticket draft pick, Kayvon Thibodeaux, started 14 games as a rookie on the defensive line.
 
On the minus side, despite landing some young contributors, my team was weak overall. My top two quarterbacks, Jameis Winston and Malik Willis, each were benched during the 2022 season. My top offensive skill position signing, Russell Gage, failed to crack the starting lineup in Tampa Bay, and as a result, my weapons were really lacking. At cornerback, Ahkello Witherspoon missed most of the season with a lingering hamstring injury, and at linebacker, Jayon Brown missed much of the season with hamstring and hand injuries. Overall, my big focus going into the offseason was improving the baseline level of play at quarterback and on the second and third levels of my defense, as well as hopefully adding top-end talent somewhere on the roster.
 

Stage 1: Logistical Notes and In-Season Moves

Last offseason, I made three small mistakes in terms of whether certain players were eligible to be signed. As it turns out, each of Brian Hoyer, Conor McDermott, and Lamarcus Joyner re-signed with their teams just before the free agency period began and thus never hit the market. I removed each player’s contract from my team, and with the open roster spots (plus 3 roster spots from cutting Josh Johnson, Jarrad Davis, and Isaac Yiadom), I claimed Kellen Mond, Alex Leatherwood, Solomon Kindley, Wyatt Davis, Janarius Robinson, and Tariq Castro-Fields off waivers after the final cutdown deadline.
 
After the season, I decided to cut Jameis Winston, Russell Gage, and Tavon Young, saving a total of 5.785M against the salary cap but also clearing their contracts off the books for 2023. With a total reported salary cap of 224.8M, this left me with 70.6M of space heading into free agency. I decided to keep my coaching staff mostly in tact, though I replaced my offensive line coach and added a few position coaches to each the offense and the defense. As a reminder, I can only hire new coaches to jobs that would be promotions over their previous jobs:
 

Pos	Coach	Previous Job
HC	Aaron Glenn	Returning, Lions DC
OC	Bobby Slowik	Returning, 49ers Passing Game Coord.
QB Coach	Brad Kragthorpe	Returning, Bengals Asst. WR Coach
RB Coach	Kolby Smith	Dolphins Offensive Asst.
WR Coach	Seth Ryan	Returning, Lions Asst. WR Coach
TE Coach	Billy VandeMerkt	Jets Offensive Asst.
OL Coach	Joe Graves	49ers Asst. OL Coach
DC	Kris Richard	Returning, Saints Co-DC
DL Coach	Darryl Tapp	Returning, 49ers Asst. DL Coach
LB Coach	Aaron Curry	Returning, Seahawks Defensive Asst.
DB/CB Coach	DeShawn Shead	Returning, Seahawks Asst. DB Coach
Saf. Coach	Mike Mitchell	Colts Asst. DB Coach

Kolby Smith primarily worked with runningbacks in Miami from 2020-2022, helping guide Raheem Mostert and Myles Gaskin to productive seasons, and he was Isiah Pacheco’s RB coach at Rutgers in 2019. Billy VandeMerkt was an offensive assistant with the Jets in 2022 as the offense became more tight end-centric with the acquisitions of Tyler Conklin and CJ Uzomah. Joe Graves worked with three first-time starters in 2022 with Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel, and Spencer Burford each playing adequately in San Francisco. Mike Mitchell played 10 years as a safety in the NFL before catching on last season as an assistant defensive backs coach under Gus Bradley in Indianapolis.
 

Stage 2: Re-Signing Free Agents

 

Pos	Player	Age	Contract
TE	Robert Tonyan	29	1/2.7M/1.3M Gtd
LT	Elijah Wilkinson	28	1/1.2M/1.1M Gtd
RT	Jermaine Eluemunor	28	1/3.0M/2.4M Gtd
ILB	Nicholas Morrow	28	1/1.2M/0.0M Gtd
CB	Brandon Facyson	28	2/6.5M/0.7M Gtd

As a reminder, my rule for re-signing free agents is that I can re-sign them for the same contract that they signed in real life. I didn’t have too many key free agents to re-sign, as I signed most of my starters to multi-year contracts last offseason, but I was still glad to bring back some key depth. Wilkinson started 9 games on the offensive line last year and Eluemunor started all 17, so they’ll come back as versatile depth who can start in a pinch. Nicholas Morrow started 17 games defensively for the Bears, leading the team in tackles, so he’s a cheap retention for only $1.2 MM.
 

Stage 3: Outside Free Agents

As a reminder, my rule for free agency is that I can sign any player who hits the open market, but I have to give them either a 10% or 20% raise to their yearly and guaranteed salaries, depending on whether or not they re-signed with their original team. Additionally, should I choose, I can sign a player to a contract that is up to one year longer than the real-life contract to which he agreed in the actual NFL.
 
Offense

Pos	Player	Age	Contract
QB	Jacoby Brissett	30	1/8.8M/8.3M Gtd
RB	Damien Harris	26	1/1.9M/1.1M Gtd
WR	Phillip Dorsett	30	1/1.3M/0.0M Gtd
WR	Jeff Smith	26	1/1.3M/0.0M Gtd
TE	OJ Howard	28	1/1.4M/0.5M Gtd
LG	Aaron Stinnie	29	1/1.7M/0.2M Gtd
C	Garrett Bradbury	28	3/17.3M/5.9M Gtd
C	Daniel Brunskill	29	2/6.1M/1.7M Gtd
RG	Nate Davis	26	3/33.0M/17.5M Gtd
RG	Nate Herbig	25	2/8.8M/4.4M Gtd

The obvious headliners here are Jacoby Brissett, Damien Harris, Garrett Bradbury, and Nate Davis. Brissett was the top realistic QB target I had this free agency, following the release of Jameis Winston, so I pulled the trigger on a one-year bridge deal for him. Damien Harris spent the first four years of his career as a workhouse back for New England, and he projects to do the same here, as his between-the-tackles ability could open it up for Raheem Mostert to be used in a more third-down, pass-catching capacity as he ages. The real focus on offense, though, was the offensive line, and I hit that in a major way by adding two highly-regarded starters in Garrett Bradbury and Nate Davis, each of whom are coming off of their first contract and are ideal scheme fits in a zone-running offense, and by adding two depth pieces in Daniel Brunskill and Nate Herbig who each have played all across the interior offensive line.
 
Defense/Specialists

Pos	Player	Age	Contract
EDGE	Chase Winovich	28	1/2.2M/1.9M Gtd
EDGE	Malik Reed	27	1/1.4M/0.8M Gtd
DT	Kevin Strong	27	1/1.3M/0.1M Gtd
ILB	Bobby Okereke	27	4/44.0M/24.2M Gtd
ILB	Krys Barnes	25	1/1.1M/0.0M Gtd
CB	Trayvon Mullen	25	1/1.5M/1.3M Gtd
CB	Amani Oruwariye	27	1/1.4M/0.1M Gtd
NCB	Sidney Jones	27	1/1.2M/0.0M Gtd
SS	Terrell Edmunds	26	1/2.2M/0.7M Gtd
SS	Johnathan Abram	26	1/1.3M/0.0M Gtd
FS	Juan Thornhill	27	3/23.1M/15.4M Gtd
K	Eddy Pineiro	27	2/4.9M/2.7M Gtd

The most consequential signings here were Bobby Okereke and Juan Thornhill. Bobby Okereke is a fifth-year linebacker who hit his stride with the Colts over the past two seasons, playing up to his freakish pre-draft potential. Juan Thornhill pairs back up with Justin Reid, who anchored a Super Bowl-winning secondary for the Chiefs last season. Chase Winovich and Malik Reed are probably best suited in rotational spots, but given the team’s relative weakness at edge rusher across from Kayvon Thibodeaux, they may be vaulted into bigger roles than they’re ideally suited for.
 
After free agency, I had 2.8MM of cap space remaining, just enough to sign my incoming rookie class (with the help of the Top 51 rule).
 

Stage 4: The Draft

My rule for the draft is that I have the 16th pick in each round and can draft any player who went at or after my pick in real life, and that I can sign any undrafted free agent with a 10% boost to their guarantees.
 
1.16 (16): Birmingham Miners select DT Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh #8
After trying to address most of my needs in free agency, I decided I could take arguably the best player available to me here at pick 16. A three-star recruit from Miami, Florida, Calijah Kancey burst onto the scene in 2021 with a 7-sack season, which he followed up with a 7.5-sack season in 2022 and a dominant NFL Combine in which he ran a blistering 4.6 forty-yard dash. Kancey could stand to add some more bulk, but he should immediately contribute to disrupting the pass game next to Kayvon Thibodeaux.
 
2.16 (47): Birmingham Miners select WR Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee #11
A four-star recruit from Irmo, South Carolina, Jalin Hyatt was the leading receiver for the dominant Tennessee Volunteers’ offense last season, recording 1267 yards and 15 touchdowns on 67 catches. Hyatt is a speed burner who probably needs to add some strength and route-running finesse, but he’s already a dynamic threat coming in for a roster that needs offensive talent.
 
3.16 (79): Birmingham Miners select TE Darnell Washington, Georgia #0
A four-star recruit from Las Vegas Nevada, Darnell Washington may have been overlooked in the draft process as the second tight end for Georgia behind Brock Bowers, but his 6’6”, 264 lbs frame is practically unheard of in the modern college game, so he’ll be an immediate part of my run game while developing as a receiver to eventually take over for Tyler Conklin.
 
4.16 (118): Birmingham Miners select QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA #1
Despite adding Jacoby Brissett in free agency and having Malik Willis on the backburner from last year, my quarterback position is obviously still very much in flux, so it was worth another midround flyer on a high-upside developmental option. A four-star recruit from Las Vegas, Nevada, Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a dominant 2022 season for UCLA, notching 3169 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions through the air on 69.6% completions as well as 645 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground.
 
5.15 (150): Birmingham Miners select C Luke Wypler, Ohio State #53
A four-star recruit from Montvale, New Jersey, Luke Wypler is an athletic, intelligent center who started all 26 games for Ohio State in 2021 and 2022. Center was not a big need considering I had just signed Garrett Bradbury and Daniel Brunskill, but Wypler was my top center in this draft by far, so this was too big a value to pass up.
 
6.16 (193): Birmingham Miners select NCB Jarrick Bernard-Converse, LSU #24
A three-star recruit from Shreveport, Louisiana, Jarrick Bernard-Converse started at Oklahoma State at safety and cornerback for 4 years before transferring to LSU in 2022. Bernard-Converse’s wealth of experience and recorded 4.3 speed at his Pro Day make him the perfect versatile late-round defensive back draft pick for a secondary in need of depth.
 
7.16 (233): Birmingham Miners select CB Cory Trice, Purdue #23
A three-star recruit from Hopkinsville, Kentucky, Cory Trice is a long, athletic cornerback who started for 4 years at Purdue. Trice fell down the draft on account of a flurry of injuries, but his tantalizing physical profile adds a high-upside element to a secondary in desperate need of young cornerback talent.
 
College Free Agents

• RB Sean Tucker, Syracuse #34 (0 Guaranteed)
  
• WR Matt Landers, Arkansas #3 (11K Guaranteed)
  
• EDGE Isaiah Land, Florida A&M #31 (110K Guaranteed)
  
• FS Rashad Torrence II, Florida #22 (0 Guaranteed)
  
• K Jack Podlesny, Georgia #96 (17K Guaranteed)
  

Sean Tucker is an athletic back who ran for over 1000 yards in each of his last two seasons at Syracuse. Matt Landers is a 6’4” receiver who led Arkansas in receiving last season and ran a 4.3 forty-yard dash at the Combine. Isaiah Land was a dominant pass rusher at Florida A&M, recording 19 sacks in 2021 and winning SWAC Defensive Player of the Year and following that up with a 7.5-sack, First Team All-SWAC season in 2022. Rashad Torrence started for two seasons, demonstrating his positional flexibility by playing all across the Gator secondary. Jack Podlesny was the kicker for Georgia who went a combined 61 of 74 on his field goals.
 

Stage 5: TL;DR

Last year, my team definitely was mostly replacement-level guys, essentially as a consequence of having to build the team from scratch without any extra draft picks or players currently signed by other teams. This year, however, I really do think I was able to fill needs in free agency and add some high-level talent in the draft. Listed is my starting lineup, and here is a picture of my full depth chart.
 
QB: Jacoby Brissett / Malik Willis
RB: Damien Harris / Raheem Mostert
WR: Christian Watson, Jalin Hyatt, JuJu Smith-Schuster
TE: Tyler Conklin / Darnell Washington
OL: Terron Armstead, Jamaree Salyer, Garrett Bradbury, Nate Davis, Morgan Moses / Jermaine Eluemunor
DL: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Calijah Kancey, Derrick Nnadi / Harrison Phillips, Malik Reed
ILB: Bobby Okereke, Myles Jack / Nicholas Morrow
CB: Ahkello Witherspoon, Brandon Facyson / Akayleb Evans, K’Waun Williams
S: Jordan Reed, Juan Thornhill
ST: Eddy Pineiro, Ryan Stonehouse, Josh Harris