2023.03.22 05:49 LaDev Car Break-in, surprisingly amazing outcome
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2023.03.21 21:29 slightlyassholic [The Great Erectus and Faun] 404 Universe Not Found Pt. 3
2023.03.21 21:23 throwawaylurker012 Everything Everywhere All At Once: The Citadel Big 3 and how Citadel’s sphere of influence has its fingers stuck not just in the stock market, but the municipal/bond market and sovereign debt/sovereign debt credit default swaps to dangerous degree
TL;DR: Citadel doesn't just have a major outsized influence in the US stock market via its market making firm/hedge fund, but also a major indirect influence via Headlands (biggest municipal bond trading firm made of 3 ex-Citadel employees), and direct influence on sovereign debt (can decide when sovereign credit default swaps pay out) with its seat on the CDDC (Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee).submitted by throwawaylurker012 to Superstonk [link] [comments]
Hi y’all. Been some while since have been able to post regularly here, so I’m returning alongside my recent post on FHLB with a bit of a “DD". Partial rush job, so all errors are mine and mine alone (obviously)
0. Sphere of Influence
Over the past 84 years (/s), you lovely apes at Superstonk have been able to fish out many of the finer points of corruption crystallized into pure, unadulterated financial terrorism and financial terrorist-level crime undertaken by Steve Cohen (Point 72), Jeff Yass (Susquehanna), Doug Cifu & Vincent Viola (Virtu), as well as Wolverine Trading, Jane Street, TwoSigma, and more. But, of course, much of it has centered on our Mayo-artist-in-residence and his firm, that of none other but Ken Griffin and Citadel.
One of the biggest finds that has come to light has been the complete and utter bullshit of having (1) a hedge fund and (2) owning a market making firm that most DEFINITELY does not use that non-public information to its benefit? I mean, it would be easy for us to check except that we need 5 swipes to even access that level of inner sanctum at Citadel, which–per DLauer’s words–is more than the fucking Pentagon.
But despite Ken Griffin’s reach into every aspect of the most influential stock market in the world, that is not his ONLY level of his sphere of influence. For we, dear apes, can step back and revisit this idea that Citadel’s power duo (its market making firm and hedge fund) is more like a single part of a Big 3.
1. Meet the Big 3Citadel’s sphere of influence includes not JUST (1) the stock market business, but directly or indirectly, the (2) U.S. municipal and bond markets, plus (3) the sovereign debt/sovereign debt credit default swap markets.
Yes, you heard that right. Citadel not only has some sufficient level of influence to tank your favorite stock–and, in turn–retirement fund, but can also effectively drive your city into the fucking ground, or even your country.
I’ve written about each of these at length, and wanted to revisit some pieces in the wake of our recent dick twitchings of the coming financial crash.
2. Meet the Municipal Bond MarketCitadel has an indirect grip tickling the taint of the municipal bond market, believe it or not. I first wrote about the municipal bond market here (“Headlands: How ex-Mayo mercenaries copy pasted Citadel’s model in the muni bond market”): https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/sy6ubj/headlands_how_exmayo_mercenaries_copy_pasted/. For those unfamiliar with municipal bonds, I’ll reiterate what they are and why many push them as a safe investment in most times (with some caution being thrown intermittently due to the collapse of regional banks like FRC and Silicon Valley Bank):
“Municipal bonds (or "munis" for short) help towns/cities raise money for projects like building schools, parks, and fixing highways. Many retail investors--admittedly, on the wealthier side--invest in munis for tax incentives like not paying federal tax on bond returns. In certain cases, certain muni buys also mean no state taxes are paid…Just like what had happened to stocks, the old-school market for buying and selling muni bonds is going electronic. This is mainly done through an ATS, or "alternative trading system" known also as a dark pool. This speeds up the process of buying and selling munis, making it closer to a "house auction".In the wake of the SVB (Silicon Valley Bank), there have already been rumblings of its effect on the municipal bond market (Bloomberg “Bank Woes Create Bond Bargain in Obscure Corner of Muni Market”):
“Investor concerns over the crises within the financial industry are bleeding into a corner of the $4 trillion municipal-bond market where major investment banks guarantee energy for public utilities….
3. San Jose, Revisited
That part about “large institutional banks” acting as facilitators of the transactions is what we saw in part in this post by [redacted].
A commenter spoke about this, and how it wasn’t Wells Fargo in doo doo but the city of San Jose.
“I believe in theses cases it’s not Wells Fargo that has a problem but the city of San José.
„Because presentments are currently processed automatically at DTC, IPAs have the option to refuse to pay (“RTP”) for maturing MMI Obligations to protect against the possibility that an IPA may not be able to fund settlement because it has not received funds from the relevant issuer. „ -> Wells Fargo didn’t receive the money from San José city.
Wells Fargo has no liability or influence on the money that comes from the city and is distributed to the investors. If the money doesn’t come or isn’t sufficient, the assets are sold or liquidated and used to pay investors.
In this case, we might be seeing one of the first of MANY issues of cities up shit’s creek over this.
4. The Municipal Bond Market Time BombThe size of the municipal market is A SHIT TON BIGGER than the corporate bond market, which will already show even more signs of being turbo fucked due to borrowing at low interest rates for years. Here’s the size of the municipal bond market for scale, sans banana:
Unfortunately, just like retirement funds, many muni investors are “buy and hold”: they buy a muni expecting a safe, long-term return with no federal income tax and then, welp, shit hits the fan. The market is heavily illiquid too, meaning if shit needs to move, then you might be fucked. Only about 1% of municipal securities trade any given day, in auctions that often take HOURS:
“Now, the primary method of trading on this doesn't look like the New York Stock Exchange or like Nasdaq. It looks like an auction. It takes about 4 hours. An auction is initiated. Participants who come in can bid on this, and it is a competitive auction that yields a very good price.”
Now to my understanding you can’t short these bonds, but the long time frame means its hard to sell these illiquid assets. Not only that, THERE IS NO NATIONAL NBBO (National Best Bid Offer)...you’re flying blind while this shit happens.
Now if you’re wondering what magnanimous souls are helping municipal bonds be sold or fixed in a timely manner for cities like San Jose, well have I got news for you.
5. Meet Headlands, U.S. Municipal/Bond Market Making Firm…Run by 3 Ex-Citadel Employees
Two months after the sneeze (March 2021), TD Ameritrade bought municipal bond market maker Headlands. Yes, that’s right…an electronic market maker just like Citadel, this time for bonds for cities and towns vs. stocks. Now let’s check the fine fellows that run this:
Of note, Matthew Andresen founded Island, one of the 1st dark pools EVER and 2nd only to “Instinet” (who also got an even bigger wave of funds during the sneeze, info courtesy of Ringing Bells) and was featured heavily in the Scott Patterson book “Dark Pools”.
Ol Matty told us that Headlands is completely automated, and where some muni traders make 75-100 muni bond sales a day (sometimes over the phone), Headlands currently bids on 10,000+ bond auctions a day with its algo. Matty Boi even said if that number ever 10x’d “we wouldn’t notice.” Even more sus, Headlands has been growing its own “holdings” of muni bonds on its books.
6. In Bros We Trust
So remember, this branch of 3 ex-Citadel bros is front and center to the issues already rearing their head. In my previous post, these were just SOME of the already teetering municipal bond issues:
What began this rabbit hole was the one and only welp 0 0 7, who caught wind of some fuckery in the municipal bond market:
In the post, he mentioned how "American Thinker" 's Joseph Lawler mentioned the SEC has been giving fucking STIFF Heismans nonstop (or per [redacted] the ol' Dustin Martin "don't argues" for you Aussie apes!) on FOIA requests (Freedom of Information Act) related to the municipal bond default in Puerto Rico, the BIGGEST bond default in America's history EVER.
You see, because this level of municipal bond includes fuckery includes not just cities and towns, but U.S. TERRITORIES. In my post about Hurricane Maria’s effect on Puerto Rico, I talked about how UBS and others loaded up Puerto Rico with debt because of what’s called a “Treasury Put” guarantee that was even called “an exit strategy” for banks (“They describe the "treasury put" as "...the implicit guarantee -- as perceived by investors -- from a government agency to provide support in the event of financial distress by the issuer of Puerto Rican bonds."”).
Puerto Rico’s default was the largest in US history, EVER. And all this the same while guess who was holding the bag? Let’s see what W S O P tells us:
“The reality is that a large percentage of Puerto Rico’s debt is held in tax-free municipal bonds and municipal bond mutual funds, owned not by Wall Street banks or tycoons, but by mom and pop investors seeking tax-free income.”
So once again, whether its retirement funds or municipal bonds, its retail caught holding the bag. And this hasn't changed for years. We’ve seen similar fuckery with bonds for NYC in the 70s, and more recently in the 00s for Detroit.
One astute wrinkle by the name of [redacted] posted this on that original post trying to dig into how it could all be related:
…how the MMLF fund that expanded money/credit to towns/cities started including commercial paper…but also leveraged near the 15 to 1 ratio perhaps under the Net Capital Requirement limit:
8. Don't Bet Against America...Says the Banks and Hedge Funds That Already Did
Commercial Paper? Municipals related? Now where does that sound familiar? Ah, yes…the city of San Jose got its call-out by Wells Fargo over COMMERCIAL PAPER. This comes as the push for ppl into municipal bond markets continues, trying to sell it as a “safe haven” to retail investors. Vanguard just recently launched its first ETF–surprise, its first US-listed ETF in 2 years– for municipal bonds (selling point: “hey everyone it’s tax-exempt! Give us money plz!”) for example:
Many of us can see all of it for what it is. Bullshit. In the wake of the SVB collapse, there is still a strong push that these regional banks–many of which lend to municipalities–will be fine. This “safe haven” theory continues, even as articles try to have them appeal abroad (such as a few days ago, “ ESG Factors of Munis May Attract Non-US Investors” “https://www.marketsmedia.com/esg-factors-of-munis-may-attract-non-us-investors/”)
Even further, one last find is that . I mean it’s not like credit default swaps can be taken on cities and towns in theory right?
FWIW also I found an interesting research paper talking about hedge funds buying up credit default swaps, and how they could potentially bankrupt towns/municipalities through some of these moves if they wanted: https://openyls.law.yale.edu/bitstream/handle/20.500.13051/8264/MingJieWangCreditDefaultS.pdf?sequence=2
This is all while we have 3 ex-Citadel heads in charge of just how the municipal bond market moves, like that of San Jose.
So is this where Citadel’s reach stops? Clearly, no. It doesn’t stop at the US border, just like how Mayo Force One doesn’t.
10. ELI5: What’s a Soverign Credit Default Swap?
That’s right, mofos. You read that sub-header right. In case you’re wondering, not only can you take out credit default swaps on a failing Swiss bank like CS, but you can do so ON ENTIRE FUCKING COUNTRIES.
In one of my old posts “Sovereign Debts & Ransom Notes: Pt. 1 The Importance of Being Non-Linearly Destabilized through Sovereign Credit Default Swaps”
(“https://www.reddit.com/Superstonk/comments/t35rdi/sovereign_debts_ransom_notes_pt_1_the_importance/”), I talked a little more about the insanity of these things even existing.
Sovereign credit default swaps exist. Long story short: sovereign credit default swaps are insurance policies that if a country defaults (usually on its debt)then you get paid! Like many other shit that we’ve seen in the GME saga, they are a form of financial derivative (a bet that something goes up, a bet that something goes down) on an underlying (the thing you’re betting on)....They can be used to insure government debt for a country in case that country is unable to pay its debt, for example. However, just like other instruments, naked sovereign credit default swaps also exist.
Naked sovereign credit default swaps are used to bet that a country or a country's debt will fail without you owning that country's debt. In part, they were destabilising during the Euro-crisis immediately after the 2008 financial crash. Greece was one of the countries that got naked shorted in 2008. In fact, the country got shorted so bad they were worried about fucking SHORT SQUEEZES on Greek debt and the sovereign CDSs!
There were a tons of perhaps “we will see soon” if relevant additional points in that old research, including:
Crazy shit. So you might say, now this post is meant to be about Citadel’s sphere of influence you might say? “Where does Citadel fit into all this? ”
11. Meet the CDDC (Credit Derivatives Determination Committee)...Where Citadel Sit and Helps Decide Which Countries Default on their Debt
One of the biggest GFC 2008 scenarios of sovereign credit default swaps being misused was against Greece. Afterwards, one of its biggest cases of misuse was by Elliot Management (ran by Paul Singer) who was using their position on the Credit Derivatives Determination Committee, or CDDC, to help decide when their sovereign credit default swaps against Argentina would pay out.
Wait, Eliot Management doesn’t sound big enough. Who else is on this committee?
Oh wait, so Citadel is ALSO on this committee? Alongside our favorite fucksticks like Chase, Goldman, Deutsche, and BNP?
It’s not lost on me with seeing now that Credit Suisse has been sucked up into UBS, maybe its position on the CDDC has been absorbed further by UBS. Back then, I wrote about the fact is we know next to nothing about the sovereign credit default swaps that might be opened up against countries (be it Russia, Sri Lanka, or otherwise):
Here's one such example of a swap dealer: Swiss financial terrorist aficionados UBS AG, who registered to be a swaps dealer with the US at the end of 2012. (UBS had also been a member of the CDDC through the Greek crisis in early 2012, alongside Citadel. In Mar. 2012, they were also one of the members pressing to ask whether Greece had defaulted already.)
Not only that, but the CDDC even can say when CORPORATE BONDS even shit the bed: late last year, they were the ones who were deciding to let everyone know whether Sunac (an Evergrande-relate company) went tits up.
12. We Say When
For months, there has been talk of a looming debt crisis (alongside all the other ones) in the sovereign debt world.
And shit continues to hit the proverbial fan. Apart from Russia, Sri Lanka and others, emerging markets like Ghana and Zambia are beginning to feel the hits from their sovereign debt (oftentimes, trying to restructure it with creditors like China).
Even further, now that Credit Suisse has gone under. We may have another thing to worry about: what banks and prime brokers are housing these opaque sovereign debt structures, loans, and swaps? Even worse, what happens when they go under? Roll that less than beautiful bean footage:
“Before collapse, Credit Suisse quietly conquered an obscure debt market
Credit Suisse was the sole structurer and arranger of the world’s largest debt-for-nature swap, a $364 million deal that it orchestrated in 2021 along with The Nature Conservancy, a charity, for Belize. Last year, it sealed another $150 million deal for Barbados. Credit Suisse has in recent years helped revive interest in the instruments and for the first time opened them up to institutional capital. The bank raised money for Belize and Barbados from pension funds including Sweden’s Alecta and Nuveen LLC, a unit of the US’s TIAA, by issuing so-called blue bonds tied to the deals.
he convoluted setup has drawn criticism from sovereign debt experts for its high cost and lack of transparency. And the opaque terms of the Belize and Barbados deals — the first of their kind — mean outside analysts will struggle to assess precisely what comes next.
A lot of poorer, especially emerging market countries were already in dire straits. Now as opaque deals meant to help these countries might not come to light (are these some of the Level 3 assets that UBS was talking about?), we can ask ourselves wtf will happen when the same banks looking to save their own ass while holding these sovereign, are the same fuckers that sit on the same board that can decide when they are worthless (while I’m sure being positioned net short).
All in all, these banks and holders of sovereign debt credit default swaps, who decide when a country goes boom, are sitting arm in arm alongside Citadel, who themselves potentially hover their greasy mayo-covered finger over the button that decides just when and how the US stock market will eventually implode.
13. Everything Everywhere All at Once
To recap, we then have Citadel with (1) the biggest market maker and arguably one of the most influential hedge fund able to decide which stocks rise and which fall as the US stock market teeters on the brink of collapse…
…with having (2) three of its ex-employees in charge of (not even counting other Citadel employees working there) operating at Headlands ready to help position themselves when the municipal bond market gets nuked, whether as a continued result of regional bank failure or in spite of it…
…while (3) sitting on the board that determines when ENTIRE COUNTRIES FAIL, in such a way that their hedge fund and associated pals can be ready to short and profit off failing nations that they and their fuckstick friends help cause.
Did I miss anything? Because remember, Citadel is not just Citadel, the market-maker that we all love to hate; Citadel’s sphere of influence via the Big 3 means the grip that it holds over the US and world economy is even greater than we think…and as such, far far more dangerous.
2023.03.21 18:05 Hot-Baseball-2070 There was a period around 2009/12 when Orbs were very easy to capture on your smartphones camera.
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2023.03.21 13:42 IaProc [First of Our Kind] - Chapters 7-8