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2023.03.26 20:08 sr73f9ayxg Jeffrey Vandergrift Net Worth Before Death: Body Found
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2023.03.26 20:08 sr73f9ayxg Jeffrey Vandergrift Net Worth Before Death: Body Found
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2023.03.26 19:38 MedicalUprising Steven Seagal net worth 2023: What happened to Steven Seagal net worth?
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2023.03.26 19:33 53r8nh6psgy Jim Toth Height, Weight, Net Worth, Age, Birthday, Wikipedia, Who, Nationality, Biography
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The problem is I don’t know where to apply for the loan. My credit is so terrible that I’m unsure a co-signer would work.
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2023.03.26 19:32 53r8nh6psgy Jim Toth Height, Weight, Net Worth, Age, Birthday, Wikipedia, Who, Nationality, Biography
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2023.03.26 19:28 ogminlo The Value of Your Eyeballs Redux: Where everyone is watching baseball but the ratings don't matter
A couple months back, I wrote about the gap between how much MLB teams have been making from their Regional Sports Network (RSN) broadcast partners and the number of viewers that actually watch their regular season games, on average. Since then, we've learned that not only is Sinclair's Diamond Sports Group (14 Bally Sports networks) indeed filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection and starting to miss rights fee payments to some teams, but Warner Bros. Discovery (three AT&T SportsNet channels) is also filing Chapter 7 bankruptcy to get out of the RSN business immediately.
Last week, Forbes published its latest round-up of MLB financial estimates that included their full accounting of the RSN landscape for 2022. I've updated my spreadsheet with a new tab populated with Forbes' estimates, and I also looked up as much reasonably reliable info about how many subscriber households these RSNs were drawing subscriber revenue from to add more context to how much of a problem this is going to continue to be for MLB, regardless of how good the Nielsen ratings are.
"But aren't TV ratings a direct correlation to success?"
No, not with the distorted manner in which these RSNs are drawing most of their revenue. Nielsen ratings measure what percentage of TV viewers are watching a given block of programming. If the local ballclub is getting a 5 share for a prime-time regular season game broadcast, that's comparatively very strong compared to re-runs of House Hunters or Law & Order in syndication. But all that does is show that the fewer and fewer people still subscribing to cable are using it to watch more baseball than Swamp People or Storage Wars. Ratings are used to price ads, but ads are less than 15% of the revenue for the RSNs. RSNs get almost all their income from the subscriber fees paid to them by the cable or satellite operators for each subscriber household receiving the RSN among their bundle of 200-something channels.
As cord-cutting accelerates, the revenue from those subscriber fees will continue to get smaller and smaller. Baseball on cable is still a multi-billion-dollar business, especially in the larger markets where teams own their own channel (such as YES, NESN, SportsNet LA, & Marquee). These outfits are much better situated to ride out the transition away from the cable bundle revenue model toward a direct-to-consumer streaming future, but the market headwinds of a shrinking cable subscriber base will come for them all sooner or later.
With that in mind, here is the updated table of doom based on Forbes' recent reporting (as before, the Blue Jays are omitted because my source does not include them among the data reported):
† The Nats remain embroiled in their protracted arbitration case for their RSN revenue with MASN.
As before, the calculations above assume all the RSNs operate with that same ratio of subscriber to advertising revenue at a 85% subscriber to 15% ads:
Let's examine the gap between the number of cable subscribers (for a selection of the teams for whom I was able to source reasonably trustworthy subscriber counts) compared to their average viewership over the last four years:
† The MASN subscriber estimate here could be less accurate than the others listed; I was able to source either total subscriber numbers or ratings numbers for the other teams (which can be used to extrapolate the subscriber count closely enough for this analysis), but I did not find reliable looking recent figures for MASN. I did find an article discussing where they stood in 2018, so I guessed based on the industry trends and then I cut the 6 million-ish homes in half for the two clubs. Take all that with a healthy dose of salt.
Remember; the way these RSNs make almost all their money is from the Total Subscribers column and not from the Average Viewers column. The ratings really don't matter for revenue! This is where the big market advantage is particularly potent. Think of it this way; YES gets paid for Yankees games as if there are 9,000,000 people watching despite them "only" having an MLB-leading 200,000+ viewers any given evening.
The reason this matters is if we assume the RSN+cable revenue model is going to ultimately die off and give way to a DTC streaming future, the ratios above can help us gauge how likely it is that any team, even the "big market" clubs, will be able to sustain their revenue dominance if they try to go it alone streaming only to their former cable regions. Can the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs or Dodgers attract about a million subscribers for a local streaming product at $20/month in-season? Seems plausible, if a bit optimistic. Then again, MSG recently launched a $30/month DTC streaming service, but they have also been bleeding cash and are believed to be at risk of bankruptcy themselves next year. To paraphrase the song, if they can't make make it there, they can't make it anywhere.
The outlook is more dire for the smaller market clubs. Could the Pirates, Reds, or Diamondbacks lure half a million local fans to pay $20/month for their games? Probably not, methinks. The bottom ⅔ of MLB's food chain will need to stick together to survive. If they can't aggregate the revenue from cable subscribers, they'll have to find a way to aggregate the revenue of streaming subscribers.
Manfred has stated repeatedly his goal is a single MLB.tv with no blackouts. To get there, it will require all 30 clubs to claw back their local streaming rights, but they would also have to agree on how to divy up the proceeds. Today, each club gets the same 3.33% cut of the MLB.tv revenue because it is considered national for revenue sharing purposes just like the TV rights money they get from the likes of ESPN, Fox, TBS, Peacock, and Apple. There is also the next CBA expiration looming after 2026. The $1.5B/year worth of national broadcast deals with ESPN, Fox, & TBS all expire after the 2028 season. By the end of this decade, the business of baseball will have been altered more than it has been since the last time the A's won a World Series.
submitted by ogminlo to baseball [link] [comments]
Last week, Forbes published its latest round-up of MLB financial estimates that included their full accounting of the RSN landscape for 2022. I've updated my spreadsheet with a new tab populated with Forbes' estimates, and I also looked up as much reasonably reliable info about how many subscriber households these RSNs were drawing subscriber revenue from to add more context to how much of a problem this is going to continue to be for MLB, regardless of how good the Nielsen ratings are.
"But aren't TV ratings a direct correlation to success?"
No, not with the distorted manner in which these RSNs are drawing most of their revenue. Nielsen ratings measure what percentage of TV viewers are watching a given block of programming. If the local ballclub is getting a 5 share for a prime-time regular season game broadcast, that's comparatively very strong compared to re-runs of House Hunters or Law & Order in syndication. But all that does is show that the fewer and fewer people still subscribing to cable are using it to watch more baseball than Swamp People or Storage Wars. Ratings are used to price ads, but ads are less than 15% of the revenue for the RSNs. RSNs get almost all their income from the subscriber fees paid to them by the cable or satellite operators for each subscriber household receiving the RSN among their bundle of 200-something channels.
As cord-cutting accelerates, the revenue from those subscriber fees will continue to get smaller and smaller. Baseball on cable is still a multi-billion-dollar business, especially in the larger markets where teams own their own channel (such as YES, NESN, SportsNet LA, & Marquee). These outfits are much better situated to ride out the transition away from the cable bundle revenue model toward a direct-to-consumer streaming future, but the market headwinds of a shrinking cable subscriber base will come for them all sooner or later.
With that in mind, here is the updated table of doom based on Forbes' recent reporting (as before, the Blue Jays are omitted because my source does not include them among the data reported):
| RSN | Market | Team | Avg Households (2022 per Forbes) | RSN Rights Fee (2022 per Forbes) | Payroll (2022 per Forbes) | Revenue (2022 per Forbes) | Operating Income (2022 per Forbes) | Per Sub 6 Month Value (85:15) | Per Sub 12 Month Value (85:15) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Southwest | Dallas | Rangers | 21,000 | $111,000,000 | $165,000,000 | $366,000,000 | $58,000,000 | $748.81 | $374.40 |
| Bally Florida | Miami | Marlins | 11,000 | $49,000,000 | $104,000,000 | $23,800,000 | -$500,000 | $631.06 | $315.53 |
| NBC Sports California | Oakland | A's | 12,000 | $53,000,000 | $70,000,000 | $212,000,000 | $29,000,000 | $625.69 | $312.85 |
| AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain | Denver | Rockies | 15,000 | $57,000,000 | $168,000,000 | $286,000,000 | -$9,100,000 | $538.33 | $269.17 |
| Bally Arizona | Phoenix | Diamondbacks | 20,000 | $68,000,000 | $121,000,000 | $276,000,000 | $30,000,000 | $481.67 | $240.83 |
| MASN† | Washington | Nationals† | 21,000 | $61,000,000 | $180,000,000 | $356,000,000 | $45,000,000 | $411.51 | $205.75 |
| Bally West | Los Angeles | Angels | 47,000 | $112,000,000 | $196,000,000 | $371,000,000 | $36,000,000 | $337.59 | $168.79 |
| AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pirates | 28,000 | $61,000,000 | $81,000,000 | $262,000,000 | $55,000,000 | $308.63 | $154.32 |
| MASN | Baltimore | Orioles | 29,000 | $61,000,000 | $83,000,000 | $264,000,000 | $67,000,000 | $297.99 | $148.99 |
| Bally Ohio | Cincinnati | Reds | 27,000 | $48,000,000 | $138,000,000 | $250,000,000 | -$9,600,000 | $251.85 | $125.93 |
| Marquee Sports | Chicago | Cubs | 57,000 | $99,000,000 | $174,000,000 | $451,000,000 | $57,000,000 | $246.05 | $123.03 |
| SportsNet LA | Los Angeles | Dodgers | 120,000 | $196,000,000 | $269,000,000 | $581,000,000 | $14,000,000 | $231.39 | $115.69 |
| ROOT NorthWest | Seattle | Mariners | 68,000 | $100,000,000 | $135,000,000 | $363,000,000 | $86,000,000 | $208.33 | $104.17 |
| NBC Sports Bay Area | San Francisco | Giants | 64,000 | $92,000,000 | $179,000,000 | $421,000,000 | $75,000,000 | $203.65 | $101.82 |
| NESN | Boston | Red Sox | 68,000 | $97,000,000 | $242,000,000 | $513,000,000 | $72,000,000 | $202.08 | $101.04 |
| Bally Southeast | Atlanta | Braves | 78,000 | $100,000,000 | $206,000,000 | $425,000,000 | $51,000,000 | $181.62 | $90.81 |
| Bally Detroit | Detroit | Tigers | 47,000 | $60,000,000 | $158,000,000 | $260,000,000 | -$26,000,000 | $180.85 | $90.43 |
| Bally Kansas City | Kansas City | Royals | 37,000 | $45,000,000 | $112,000,000 | $26,000,000 | $33,000,000 | $172.30 | $86.15 |
| Bally SUN | Tampa Bay | Rays | 52,000 | $56,000,000 | $119,000,000 | $248,000,000 | $9,500,000 | $152.56 | $76.28 |
| NBC Sports Chicago | Chicago | White Sox | 58,000 | $60,000,000 | $213,000,000 | $276,000,000 | -$53,000,000 | $146.55 | $73.28 |
| NBC Sports Philadelphia | Philadelphia | Phillies | 131,000 | $125,000,000 | $255,000,000 | $398,000,000 | -$3,700,000 | $135.18 | $67.59 |
| Bally Great Lakes | Cleveland | Guardians | 59,000 | $55,000,000 | $91,000,000 | $268,000,000 | $40,000,000 | $132.06 | $66.03 |
| Bally San Diego | San Diego | Padres | 51,000 | $47,000,000 | $243,000,000 | $324,000,000 | -$53,000,000 | $130.56 | $65.28 |
| Bally North | Minneapolis | Twins | 47,000 | $42,000,000 | $172,000,000 | $267,000,000 | -$27,000,000 | $126.60 | $63.30 |
| Bally Wisconsin | Milwaukee | Brewers | 43,000 | $33,000,000 | $14,900,000 | $294,000,000 | $23,000,000 | $108.72 | $54.36 |
| AT&T SportsNet Houston | Houston | Astros | 109,000 | $73,000,000 | $207,000,000 | $407,000,000 | $44,000,000 | $94.88 | $47.44 |
| Bally Midwest | St. Louis | Cardinals | 91,000 | $59,000,000 | $174,000,000 | $358,000,000 | $43,000,000 | $91.85 | $45.92 |
| YES | New York | Yankees | 231,000 | $143,000,000 | $262,000,000 | $657,000,000 | $16,000,000 | $87.70 | $43.85 |
| SNY | New York | Mets | 180,000 | $88,000,000 | $288,000,000 | $374,000,000 | -$138,000,000 | $69.26 | $34.63 |
| AGGREGATE | 1,822,000 | $2,251,000,000 | $4,819,900,000 | $9,577,800,000 | $563,600,000 | $175.02 | $87.51 |
As before, the calculations above assume all the RSNs operate with that same ratio of subscriber to advertising revenue at a 85% subscriber to 15% ads:
{ ( [RSN Rights Fee] ÷ [Months of Service] ) ÷ [Avg Households] } × 85% That's all a thought exercise to imagine what it would cost to structure a DTC streaming service for each local MLB club to retain its prior revenue from the RSN rights fees. That's clearly not going to happen, and we already know it won't all happen it once. We also know that the number of viewers for the average game is not the same as the number of potential subscribers to a DTC streaming service. Let's examine the gap between the number of cable subscribers (for a selection of the teams for whom I was able to source reasonably trustworthy subscriber counts) compared to their average viewership over the last four years:
| RSN | Market | Team | Avg Viewing Households (2019-2022) | RSN Total Subscribers | Subscribers to Avg. Viewers Ratio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MASN† | Washington | Nationals | 25,012 | 3,000,000† | 120:1 |
| MASN† | Baltimore | Orioles | 38,123 | 3,000,000† | 79:1 |
| NBC Sports Chicago | Chicago | White Sox | 53,837 | 3,500,000 | 65:1 |
| ROOT NorthWest | Seattle | Mariners | 50,664 | 3,200,000 | 63:1 |
| NBC Sports Bay Area | San Francisco | Giants | 65,957 | 4,000,000 | 61:1 |
| SNY | New York | Mets | 136,881 | 8,000,000 | 58:1 |
| NESN | Boston | Red Sox | 81,550 | 4,000,000 | 49:1 |
| YES | New York | Yankees | 203,989 | 9,000,000 | 44:1 |
| Bally Southeast | Atlanta | Braves | 73,628 | 3,000,000 | 41:1 |
| Marquee Sports | Chicago | Cubs | 97,919 | 3,600,000 | 37:1 |
| SportsNet LA | Los Angeles | Dodgers | 134,563 | 5,000,000 | 37:1 |
| AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pirates | 36,916 | 1,100,000 | 30:1 |
| NBC Sports Philadelphia | Philadelphia | Phillies | 116,395 | 3,000,000 | 26:1 |
| AT&T SportsNet Houston | Houston | Astros | 103,318 | 2,500,000 | 24:1 |
| Bally Ohio | Cincinnati | Reds | 37,468 | 850,000 | 23:1 |
| Bally Wisconsin | Milwaukee | Brewers | 43,274 | 900,000 | 21:1 |
| Bally Detroit | Detroit | Tigers | 52,111 | 1,100,000 | 21:1 |
| Bally San Diego | San Diego | Padres | 51,530 | 1,000,000 | 19:1 |
| Bally Great Lakes | Cleveland | Guardians | 79,868 | 1,500,000 | 19:1 |
| Bally Midwest | St. Louis | Cardinals | 72,884 | 1,200,000 | 16:1 |
Remember; the way these RSNs make almost all their money is from the Total Subscribers column and not from the Average Viewers column. The ratings really don't matter for revenue! This is where the big market advantage is particularly potent. Think of it this way; YES gets paid for Yankees games as if there are 9,000,000 people watching despite them "only" having an MLB-leading 200,000+ viewers any given evening.
The reason this matters is if we assume the RSN+cable revenue model is going to ultimately die off and give way to a DTC streaming future, the ratios above can help us gauge how likely it is that any team, even the "big market" clubs, will be able to sustain their revenue dominance if they try to go it alone streaming only to their former cable regions. Can the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs or Dodgers attract about a million subscribers for a local streaming product at $20/month in-season? Seems plausible, if a bit optimistic. Then again, MSG recently launched a $30/month DTC streaming service, but they have also been bleeding cash and are believed to be at risk of bankruptcy themselves next year. To paraphrase the song, if they can't make make it there, they can't make it anywhere.
The outlook is more dire for the smaller market clubs. Could the Pirates, Reds, or Diamondbacks lure half a million local fans to pay $20/month for their games? Probably not, methinks. The bottom ⅔ of MLB's food chain will need to stick together to survive. If they can't aggregate the revenue from cable subscribers, they'll have to find a way to aggregate the revenue of streaming subscribers.
Manfred has stated repeatedly his goal is a single MLB.tv with no blackouts. To get there, it will require all 30 clubs to claw back their local streaming rights, but they would also have to agree on how to divy up the proceeds. Today, each club gets the same 3.33% cut of the MLB.tv revenue because it is considered national for revenue sharing purposes just like the TV rights money they get from the likes of ESPN, Fox, TBS, Peacock, and Apple. There is also the next CBA expiration looming after 2026. The $1.5B/year worth of national broadcast deals with ESPN, Fox, & TBS all expire after the 2028 season. By the end of this decade, the business of baseball will have been altered more than it has been since the last time the A's won a World Series.
2023.03.26 19:26 od9w_rgyfg Jim Toth Height, Weight, Net Worth, Age, Birthday, Wikipedia, Who, Nationality, Biography
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2023.03.26 19:25 soxfaninfinity Angry Observation: Texas Counties to Watch in 2024 Houston Metro
Hey it's me again! I decided to post earlier in the day today due to my schedule. Anyways lets get into it. If you missed my post yesterday you can find it right here.
While Houston is a bigger city than Dallas, it has an ever so slightly population than the Dallas Metro. It is also worth noting that Houston Metro is a bit redder than Dallas, although still trending blue. Today we will be going over five counties in the Houston Metro.
The Counties:
The first county we will be going over is Montgomery County, a suburban/exurban county north of Houston. Unlike Montgomery County Maryland or Pennsylvania, which are other prominent suburbs, the Texas variant is HEAVILY republican, in fact it is the biggest source of raw votes for republicans in the entire state. The results from the last three presidential elections are as follows:
2012: R 137,969 (79.51%) D 32,920 (18.97%)
2016: R 150,314 (73%) D 45,835 (22.26%)
2020: R 193,382 (71.22%) D 74,377 (27.39%)
as you can see, Montgomery county is extremely conservative compared to most other suburbs in both Texas and the United States. In fact, Trump gained raw net votes from Mitt Romney despite a significantly lower margin of victory in the county. Since 2012, Democrats gained around 41K votes while Republicans gained 55k votes, a net gain of 14,000 votes for Republicans since 2012. However, there is good news for Democrats. The raw votes gained in any one of the Dallas area counties is significantly higher than what the Republicans gained in Montgomery County. Also the percentage of new vote in Montgomery county is split 57.2% R and 42.8% D. Obviously Democrats will want to narrow the raw vote margin in the county, but the growth of population in the county is at least not 75/25 or 80/20 like the county was a decade ago.
Next I will cover Galveston County, a costal county known for it's beaches. I decided to put this county in after some debating. This is another solid red county, although Galveston itself is fairly blue. it is also worth noting that unlike Montgomery county, Galveston county was actually a blue county through the Bill Clinton years, and 2012/2016 was actually the reddest it had ever been, even McGovern won 42% of the vote. The last three presidential election results of the county are as follows:
2012: R 69,059 (62.74%) D 39,511 (35.89%)
2016: R 73,757 (60.01%) D 43,658 (35.52%)
2020 R 93,911 (60.56%) D 58,842 (37.95%)
Galveston county does not really appear to be shifting much at all. I would be surprised if Democrats varied much from 35-40% of the vote in the county, but you never know. In total since 2012, Democrats gained around 19K votes while Republicans gained around 25K votes, a net gain of around 6,000 votes. for the GOP since 2012. Again not much really to analyze here as the county seems rather steady. Except Republicans to add a tiny bit to their raw margin here.
The third county I will cover in the Houston area is Brazoria County, a fast growing suburban county southwest of Houston. Like most Dallas suburbs, it is heavily ancestrally republican but shifting, albeit at a slower pace. The results of the last three presidential elections are as follows:
2012: R 70,682 (66.39%) D 34,421 (32.25%)
2016: R 72,791 (60.07%) D 43,200 (35.65%)
2020: R 90,433 (58.35%) D 62,228 (40.15%)
As you can see, the county has significantly moved to the left since 2012, although not at a super fast pace. It is also worth noting that most net gains Democrats made were between 2012 and 2016, although Democrats still net gained a couple thousand votes in the past cycle. In total, Democrats have gained around 28,000 votes since 2012, while Republicans have gained around 20,000 votes since then, a net gain of around 8,000 votes for Democrats since 2012. Not a huge number, but it will be interesting to see how the new votes in the county look in 2024 and beyond.
Next we will move into Fort Bend County, home to Sugar Land. Fort Bend county is by far the most friendly suburban county to Democrats, as it had been light red in the Obama years, and is now a blue county. The results from the last three presidential elections are as follows:
2012: R 116,126 (52.91%) D 101,144 (46.08%)
2016: R 117,291 (44.76%) D 134,686 (51.38%) (FLIP)
2020: R 157,718 (44.01%) D 195,552 (54.57%)
Fort Bend County has become an asset for Democrats in the Houston area, giving them some solid results the last two presidential elections. Since 2012, Democrats have gained around 94K votes while Republicans have gained around 41K votes, a net gain of around 53,000 votes for Democrats since 2012. Like many Dallas suburbs, the question is will this trend continue? How blue can this county get? Again we will have to wait and see.
Last but certainly not least we have Harris County, home to Houston itself. Harris county is THE largest county in Texas and THIRD LARGEST IN THE UNITED STATES, giving some context on how important it could become in future presidential elections. Also, Obama narrowly flipped the county in 2008, won it by the skin of his teeth in 2012, and now it is decently blue. The results from the last three presidential elections are as follows:
2012: R 586,073 (49.31%) D 587,044 (49.39%)
2016: R 545,955 (41.61%) D 707,914 (53.95%)
2020: R 700,630 (42.69%) D 918,193 (55.94%)
Interestingly in Harris County, both Trump and Biden improved on their party's vote share in 2020, although Biden improved by 2% rather than 1%. Regardless, Democrats have gained 331K votes since 2012 while Republicans have gained 115K votes since 2012, a net gain of around 216,000 votes for Democrats in Harris county since 2012. Notice how the margin isn't all that lopsided? That shows how significant even a slight improvement in margin can be in Harris county. If Blexas is to become a reality, Democrats should focus a lot on fixing the low turnout seen in Houston.
Conclusion:
While not as fruitful as the gains in the Dallas area, Democrats have made some significant gains in the Houston area since 2012. In total, Democrats have gained around 257,000 votes from the Houston area, with Harris county doing much of the legwork.
Hope you all enjoyed this post and thanks for reading! Tomorrow I will be doing the Austin and San Antonio combined area, which is the rise of an emerging two-city metropolis.
submitted by soxfaninfinity to AngryObservation [link] [comments]
While Houston is a bigger city than Dallas, it has an ever so slightly population than the Dallas Metro. It is also worth noting that Houston Metro is a bit redder than Dallas, although still trending blue. Today we will be going over five counties in the Houston Metro.
The Counties:
The first county we will be going over is Montgomery County, a suburban/exurban county north of Houston. Unlike Montgomery County Maryland or Pennsylvania, which are other prominent suburbs, the Texas variant is HEAVILY republican, in fact it is the biggest source of raw votes for republicans in the entire state. The results from the last three presidential elections are as follows:
2012: R 137,969 (79.51%) D 32,920 (18.97%)
2016: R 150,314 (73%) D 45,835 (22.26%)
2020: R 193,382 (71.22%) D 74,377 (27.39%)
as you can see, Montgomery county is extremely conservative compared to most other suburbs in both Texas and the United States. In fact, Trump gained raw net votes from Mitt Romney despite a significantly lower margin of victory in the county. Since 2012, Democrats gained around 41K votes while Republicans gained 55k votes, a net gain of 14,000 votes for Republicans since 2012. However, there is good news for Democrats. The raw votes gained in any one of the Dallas area counties is significantly higher than what the Republicans gained in Montgomery County. Also the percentage of new vote in Montgomery county is split 57.2% R and 42.8% D. Obviously Democrats will want to narrow the raw vote margin in the county, but the growth of population in the county is at least not 75/25 or 80/20 like the county was a decade ago.
Next I will cover Galveston County, a costal county known for it's beaches. I decided to put this county in after some debating. This is another solid red county, although Galveston itself is fairly blue. it is also worth noting that unlike Montgomery county, Galveston county was actually a blue county through the Bill Clinton years, and 2012/2016 was actually the reddest it had ever been, even McGovern won 42% of the vote. The last three presidential election results of the county are as follows:
2012: R 69,059 (62.74%) D 39,511 (35.89%)
2016: R 73,757 (60.01%) D 43,658 (35.52%)
2020 R 93,911 (60.56%) D 58,842 (37.95%)
Galveston county does not really appear to be shifting much at all. I would be surprised if Democrats varied much from 35-40% of the vote in the county, but you never know. In total since 2012, Democrats gained around 19K votes while Republicans gained around 25K votes, a net gain of around 6,000 votes. for the GOP since 2012. Again not much really to analyze here as the county seems rather steady. Except Republicans to add a tiny bit to their raw margin here.
The third county I will cover in the Houston area is Brazoria County, a fast growing suburban county southwest of Houston. Like most Dallas suburbs, it is heavily ancestrally republican but shifting, albeit at a slower pace. The results of the last three presidential elections are as follows:
2012: R 70,682 (66.39%) D 34,421 (32.25%)
2016: R 72,791 (60.07%) D 43,200 (35.65%)
2020: R 90,433 (58.35%) D 62,228 (40.15%)
As you can see, the county has significantly moved to the left since 2012, although not at a super fast pace. It is also worth noting that most net gains Democrats made were between 2012 and 2016, although Democrats still net gained a couple thousand votes in the past cycle. In total, Democrats have gained around 28,000 votes since 2012, while Republicans have gained around 20,000 votes since then, a net gain of around 8,000 votes for Democrats since 2012. Not a huge number, but it will be interesting to see how the new votes in the county look in 2024 and beyond.
Next we will move into Fort Bend County, home to Sugar Land. Fort Bend county is by far the most friendly suburban county to Democrats, as it had been light red in the Obama years, and is now a blue county. The results from the last three presidential elections are as follows:
2012: R 116,126 (52.91%) D 101,144 (46.08%)
2016: R 117,291 (44.76%) D 134,686 (51.38%) (FLIP)
2020: R 157,718 (44.01%) D 195,552 (54.57%)
Fort Bend County has become an asset for Democrats in the Houston area, giving them some solid results the last two presidential elections. Since 2012, Democrats have gained around 94K votes while Republicans have gained around 41K votes, a net gain of around 53,000 votes for Democrats since 2012. Like many Dallas suburbs, the question is will this trend continue? How blue can this county get? Again we will have to wait and see.
Last but certainly not least we have Harris County, home to Houston itself. Harris county is THE largest county in Texas and THIRD LARGEST IN THE UNITED STATES, giving some context on how important it could become in future presidential elections. Also, Obama narrowly flipped the county in 2008, won it by the skin of his teeth in 2012, and now it is decently blue. The results from the last three presidential elections are as follows:
2012: R 586,073 (49.31%) D 587,044 (49.39%)
2016: R 545,955 (41.61%) D 707,914 (53.95%)
2020: R 700,630 (42.69%) D 918,193 (55.94%)
Interestingly in Harris County, both Trump and Biden improved on their party's vote share in 2020, although Biden improved by 2% rather than 1%. Regardless, Democrats have gained 331K votes since 2012 while Republicans have gained 115K votes since 2012, a net gain of around 216,000 votes for Democrats in Harris county since 2012. Notice how the margin isn't all that lopsided? That shows how significant even a slight improvement in margin can be in Harris county. If Blexas is to become a reality, Democrats should focus a lot on fixing the low turnout seen in Houston.
Conclusion:
While not as fruitful as the gains in the Dallas area, Democrats have made some significant gains in the Houston area since 2012. In total, Democrats have gained around 257,000 votes from the Houston area, with Harris county doing much of the legwork.
Hope you all enjoyed this post and thanks for reading! Tomorrow I will be doing the Austin and San Antonio combined area, which is the rise of an emerging two-city metropolis.
2023.03.26 19:25 od9w_rgyfg Jim Toth Height, Weight, Net Worth, Age, Birthday, Wikipedia, Who, Nationality, Biography
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2023.03.26 19:23 PuzzleheadedAd2461 Larry June Height, Weight, Net Worth, Age, Birthday, Wikipedia, Who, Instagram, Biography
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